Poll Sum 29th July 2015

pollpic

 POLL SUMMARY

poll29h

redblue

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 8,536 voters were polled.

Two Polls, Morgan 13/07, Essential 14/07 were deleted

Two polls, Morgan 27/07, Essential 28/07 were added.

poll29a

redblue

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll29b

Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll29credblue

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,023,150 Votes

ALP 7,976,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll29d

A difference of

6.358% or

953,700 voters.

This week sees a major shiftback to the left. Pretty well back to where we were in the middle of May. A lead of nearly a million voters.

redblue

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll29e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll29f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll29g

redblue

The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll15iThe Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

redblue

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I wonder what you would call a swing of over 400,000 votes in a single week? All of a sudden all the budget goodness (haha), the embarrassed Bill Shorten and the terrible terror we are all told to be so terrified of have disappeared. All we are left with is a speaker wearing a helicopter cap. Wokka Wokka Wokka Wokka.

Such a pity about the $80,000,000 of taxpayers money being wasted spent on that fizzog of a Royal Commission!

 

redblue

Over to you, the discerning reader.

3 responses to “Poll Sum 29th July 2015

  1. Wokka Wokka Wokka Wokka hahahahaha Good impression. Very good news this week; however it still does my head in how LNP primary can be where it is.

    Like

  2. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    Poll Sum by Archie 29 July, 2015. Thank you Archie for all your statistical brilliance.

    Like

  3. Well that big swing to the right last week definitely washed away pretty quickly with polls settling back into trend.Next thing to watch will be opinion polling on leaders, will Libs panic if Shorten improves? Will Abbott panic & take his party to a DD if they try & remove him?

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s