Poll Sum; 22nd July, 2015

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POLL SUMMARY

poll22h

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A small total of 8,308 voters were polled.

Three Polls, Galaxy/Newspoll 6/07, Ipsos 6/07, Essential 7/07 were deleted

Two polls, Galaxy/Newspoll 20/07, Essential 21/07 were added.

Poll22a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll22b

Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Poll22c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,226,550 Votes

ALP 7,773,450 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Poll22d

A difference of

3.646% or

546,900 voters.

This week sees a major shift to the right. One more week like this and we could be seeing that August DD we were hearing about just after the Budget was brought down..

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll22e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.poll22g

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The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll22iThe Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I always look one week further on for events to show up in the polls. This week we had the Speaker’s misdemeanors come to the public attention but the Galaxy/Newspoll was taken just as the news was breaking and so would have had minimal effect. Essential works on a two week rolling average and so, as expected, is pretty much a carbon copy of last week.

2:

Next week’s Morgan will show how much notice the electorate has taken of Heligate.

3:

Bob Ellis had some strong words to say about Newspoll; “A forged Newspoll came out redistributing preferences as they were in 2013 when people trusted Abbott’s promises, or at least some of them. It showed Labor o 53, more like 56, Abbott disliked by 60 percent, Shorten by 59, Abbott preferred PM by 39, Shorten by 36,, and 25 UNCOMMITTED, and Labor winning back every seat Abbott took from them,; Shorten Prime Minister hereafter and the headline SHORTEN SINKS DEEPER. ”

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

4 responses to “Poll Sum; 22nd July, 2015

  1. As always, I agree with Bob. Very sad to hear about his health news.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    This weeks polling update from Archie, with an added extra from Bob Ellis.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. hopefully that comment mid article about big swing to right will disappear next week. agree full effect of heligate hasn’t flowed into poll & quite unusual for a lib scandal it’s still in the news a week after first breaking. so the stench will now stick with bishop & abbott.
    while parlt not sitting greens do not get any coverage in press, but the betrayal of nats on liverpool plains may see farmers look to shift vote to indi or green, but don’t think pollsters will test yet.
    other thing i think abbott was hoping for bigger hit to shorten from turc & alps national conference. however turc was major flop & from what i read in afr tonight, alp is locking in behind shorten on his reforms.
    with all that a dd may only happen if abbott feels threatened from his own side.

    Liked by 1 person

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