THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
A small total of 8,308 voters were polled.
Three Polls, Galaxy/Newspoll 6/07, Ipsos 6/07, Essential 7/07 were deleted
Two polls, Galaxy/Newspoll 20/07, Essential 21/07 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Galaxy/Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,226,550 Votes
ALP 7,773,450 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
This week sees a major shift to the right. One more week like this and we could be seeing that August DD we were hearing about just after the Budget was brought down..
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.
Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
I always look one week further on for events to show up in the polls. This week we had the Speaker’s misdemeanors come to the public attention but the Galaxy/Newspoll was taken just as the news was breaking and so would have had minimal effect. Essential works on a two week rolling average and so, as expected, is pretty much a carbon copy of last week.
Next week’s Morgan will show how much notice the electorate has taken of Heligate.
Bob Ellis had some strong words to say about Newspoll; “A forged Newspoll came out redistributing preferences as they were in 2013 when people trusted Abbott’s promises, or at least some of them. It showed Labor o 53, more like 56, Abbott disliked by 60 percent, Shorten by 59, Abbott preferred PM by 39, Shorten by 36,, and 25 UNCOMMITTED, and Labor winning back every seat Abbott took from them,; Shorten Prime Minister hereafter and the headline SHORTEN SINKS DEEPER. ”