THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
A total of 9,695 voters were polled.
Three Polls, Reachtel 25/06, Morgan 29/06, Essential 30/06 were deleted
Two polls, Morgan 13/07, Essential 14/07 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,226,400 Votes
ALP 7,773,600 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
This week sees a major shift to the right. One more week like this and we could be seeing that August DD we were hearing about just after the Budget was brought down..
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.
Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.
The Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
My favourite pollster, Morgan, has turned against me. And it blames the TURC for the 3% swing. That is one big swing in a week. I wonder if it is something which has been brewing for a while. Perhaps we won’t know until next week’s polls come out. I feel we may see the first poll favouring the Coalition since before the 2014 Budget.
The Greens are holding their numbers pretty well.
Should we look forward to the numbers swing back to the left anytime close to an election?
I had my say this problem morning. I wasn’t hopeful.