Poll Sum; 15th July

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 9,695 voters were polled.

Three Polls, Reachtel 25/06, Morgan 29/06, Essential 30/06 were deleted

Two polls, Morgan 13/07, Essential 14/07 were added.

Poll15a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll15b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Poll15c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,226,400 Votes

ALP 7,773,600 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Poll15d

A difference of

3.648% or

547,200 voters.

This week sees a major shift to the right. One more week like this and we could be seeing that August DD we were hearing about just after the Budget was brought down..

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll15g

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The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

poll15iThe Greens are approaching 2 million voters.

The Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

My favourite pollster, Morgan, has turned against me. And it blames the TURC for the 3% swing. That is one big swing in a week. I wonder if it is something which has been brewing for a while. Perhaps we won’t know until next week’s polls come out. I feel we may see the first poll favouring the Coalition since before the 2014 Budget.

2:

The Greens are holding their numbers pretty well.

3:

Should we look forward to the numbers swing back to the left anytime close to an election?

I had my say this problem morning. I wasn’t hopeful.

Isolated Australia

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 15th July

  1. I’ll await next Morgan.Once electorate not reminded daily that #turc really really BAD for Shorten & he doesn’t appear to have questions to answer, from turc, national press or even Murdoch rags, where radio, morning tv take their daily rants, will they remember why they dislike Abbott so much. The growing attack on renewable energy, which voters like, and the promoting of coal mines in food bowls may just reaffirm Abbott should be gone

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  2. Thanks again Archie,

    Once more an interesting approach to the polls back to raw numbers. Also shows the “irrelevance” of the nationals in numbers but their relevance in the numbers on MP’s returned and their Coalition with the Liberals.

    Be interesting to see the effect of the approval of the Liverpool plains mine on the poll numbers. And I agree with Sue’s comment about the press not banging on about Shorten.

    The meme this week is by the Economic illiterate (Hockey) prepping the PM for his summit (a small molehill) and the increase of the GST. The side dog whistle is the return of the carbon Tax by Labor.

    All this tells me is that the Liberals are manipulating the press again and the press are falling for it. Especially ABCNews24. They are seriously worried about the coming Labor National Conference. Where a lot of stuff will become clear.

    I think that Abbott thinks that he is now in winning Territory.

    I look forward to him calling an Election so we can being to repair the damage he has caused after he is kicked out of office.

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