Poll Sum; 8th July

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POLL SUMMARY

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 11,188 voters were polled.

One poll, Essential 23/6 was deleted

Two polls, Ipsos 6/07,  Essential 7/07 were added.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,090,800 Votes

ALP 7,909,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

5.456% or

818,400 voters.

A miniscule swing this week. the ALP picked up just under 10,000 votes Australia wide.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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The idea behind the Poll Summary was to show what all those abstract percentages mean in terms of numbers of people.

Perhaps that is best shown by the numbers of people voting for each of the four (YES! FOUR!) major parties. The number for the Nationals is set at 4% of the electorate as this is the approximate number of voters they attract at each election.

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The Greens are approaching 2 million voters.

The Nats continue on with their gerrymandered 600,000 votes and with their blind acceptance of everything “Liberal”.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The numbers have definitely settled into a near 47/53 split. The electorate have apparently decided that they dislike the leaders of both parties but are sticking with their party.

2:

The Greens are approaching 13% and are on a steep curve upwards.They have gained nearly 1.5% in the past five weeks.  They are the only party making any sort of decisive move in the polls at the moment. Whether this is due to the new leadership or due to the dislike of the two majors is yet to be determined.

3:

There are nine (9) National seats in the HoR. There is one (1) Greens seat in the HoR. So the Nats gain a seat for every 66,667 votes while the Greens get a seat for every 2,000,000 votes?

Sounds democratic to me – – –

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

3 responses to “Poll Sum; 8th July

  1. Have I missed something, newspoll not included this week

    Liked by 1 person

  2. That was strange – even Poll Bludger missed this one. I think it is the new Galaxy/exNewspoll. Somehow I didn’t see Ghost who Votes three tweets on this poll – it was just before the Ipsos poll tweets. I’m sure the Galaxy tweets weren’t there originally. Weird. I’m adding it to the spreadsheet and will include it next week.

    Like

  3. yeah i had been surprised it was out pretty early on Sunday night, then noone referred to it. But thanks Archie look forward to next post

    Like

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