Poll Sum; 1st July

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poll01h

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 9,818 voters were polled. Which is around 1 voter in 1400.

Make of that what you will.

 poll23a

Five polls, Essential 10/6, Ipsos 15/06, Morgan 15/06, Newspoll 15/06,

Essential 16/06 were deleted

Three polls, Reachtel 25/06, Morgan 29/06, Essential 30/06 were added.

poll01a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll01bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,097,100 Votes

ALP 7,902,900 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll01d

A difference of

5.372% or

805,800 voters.

A miniscule swing this week. the L-NP picked up just under 10,000 votes Australia wide.

 

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll01g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The numbers appear to be stalled at the moment. Until Murdoch-Mania strikes as we are led into an early election. Then the 5% differential will shrink.  I am tipping a very narrow ALP-Greens victory and a Left-wing Coalition as the outcome.

That could easily change to a disastrous result for Australia.

2:

The Greens have passed the 12% line and seem to be headed further up the polling charts yet may only gain two or three seats in the Lower House.  This makes a mockery of the Nationals Gerrymander.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 1st July

  1. What worries me is that a Labor or LNP win will result in more of the same right wing politics.

    Like

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