Poll Sum; 24th June

pollpic
 poll23h

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

A total of 11,292 voters were polled. Which is around 1 voter in 1330.

Make of that what you will.

Because the Essential Poll of 10/06 was a day late, it still fits into the 14 day period so no polls were deleted this week.

One poll,  Essential 23/06 was added.

poll23a

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll23bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll23c

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,087,500 Votes

ALP 7,912,500 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll23d

A difference of

5.500% or

825,000 voters.

In seven days, there has been an apparent small swing right.

40,000 voters have changed their minds this week.

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PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll23e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll23f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll23g

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The swing this week with only Essential being released, is illusionary. It will be interesting next week with more polls available.

 

2:

Newspoll has released a poll taken in Victoria which shows a Victorian Two Party Preferred of 58% ALP, 42% L-NP.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 24th June

  1. A little Labor leadership would not go astray at this point in time!

    Like

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