Poll Sum; 17th June

POLL SUMMARY

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 7,867 Australians polled.

Three polls, Morgan 1/6, Newspoll 1/6, Essential 2/6 were deleted

Four polls, Ipsos 15/06, Morgan 15/06, Newspoll 15/06, Essential 16/06 were added.

A total of 9,479 voters were polled.

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,065,900 Votes

ALP 7,934,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

A difference of

5.788% or

868,200 voters.

In seven days, there has been a swing of 1%.

150,000 voters have changed their minds this week.

The pattern looks to have broken although we won’t know for sure until next week.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

POLLING SOURCES

For this post

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The swing has swung and it looks as though no one really likes the budget, despite Joe’s desperate attempts to talk it up. Now, with great gusto, noise and  many many flags in the background, the terrorism card is being played and when I look at these numbers my mind drifts to the story of the boy who cried wolf.

 

2:

The Greens have jumped over the 12% hurdle for the first time. If they can increase from here they move into genuine third-party contention and, as they are pulling votes from an apparently disorganised and confused ALP, sometime soon, within the next ten to twenty years, their numbers will begin to be equal. To match the right coalition we have been governed by since the 1950’s there will be a left coalition. Eventually we will become accustomed to that radical idea.

Over to you, the discerning reader.