Poll Sum 10th June

pollpic

POLL SUMMARY

poll10h

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 7,867 Australians polled.

One poll,  Essential 26/05 was deleted

One poll, Essential 10/06 was added

poll10a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll10bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll10c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,140,750 Votes

ALP 7,859,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll10d

A difference of

4.79% or

718,500 voters.

just 1,200 voters have changed their minds this week.

Now watching that pattern with some trepids.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll10e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll10f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

With just one poll issued this week it is very much “as you were”.

And, with the Queens Birthday messing up all weeks except in Western Australia, Essential was a day late making ME a day late. Essential just lost my vote!

2:

Remember that Essential poll closed before Sloppy Joe made his comment about how simple it is to buy a house. “Get a good job with a good wage”. In a country where the conservative Governments have removed most of the permanent jobs and reduced the wages available on the few jobs available.

He said it with a straight face!

Leading to the best and most relevant comment I have read this week on facebook.

The world could do with more Crazy Cat Ladies, fewer Treasurers –

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum 10th June

  1. C’mon people! We can do better than that! Let’s work to get the TPP to 25:75 in favour of the ALP! You can do it! I know you can!!

    Like

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