Poll Sum, June 3rd

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 13,329 Australians polled.

Six polls, Reachtel 15/05, Galaxy16/05, Ipsos 18/5, Morgan 18/05, Essential 19/05 were deleted

Three polls, Morgan 1/06, Newspoll 1/06, Essential 2/06  were added

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll03bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,140,150 Votes

ALP 7,859,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

4.798% or

719,700 voters.

About 200,000 voters have changed their minds about the Budget.

Next week is yet another crucial time.

As can be seen, a pattern is developing and if it is to be continued then a swing back right is due. Or the pattern could be broken.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

 

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll03g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It seems our tones cannot keep a good poll swing going.

2:

I was wrong last week – the Newspoll contract appears to run out at the end of June so there could still be one or two of them before Robo-Galaxy takes over.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

2 responses to “Poll Sum, June 3rd

  1. It will be very interesting next week, in fact I’m waiting in anticipation. The budget appears to be lost in static and I feel LNP are on the back foot. Marriage Equality debate has overshadowed everything this week, plus for those who take notice, there have been a few significant debacles this week by the coalition. Censure in the chamber for an unfinished question, a ‘turn back’ crashing into a reef, exposing the boats are still coming and the complete absence of LNP at the marriage equality bill; which looked like they turned their back on LGBTI rather than the ALP. It will be very interesting next week indeed. The only thing that may save them, if it Abbott steps it up to a 20 flag background while he shouts over an air-raid siren.

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  2. Be interesting to see if ABC Killing Field over 4 weeks affects the poll, as the journalists will only want to talk about it. However as its all been heard before voters may just shrug.

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