THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
Saw a total of 13,329 Australians polled.
Six polls, Reachtel 15/05, Galaxy16/05, Ipsos 18/5, Morgan 18/05, Essential 19/05 were deleted
Three polls, Morgan 1/06, Newspoll 1/06, Essential 2/06 were added
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,140,150 Votes
ALP 7,859,850 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
About 200,000 voters have changed their minds about the Budget.
Next week is yet another crucial time.
As can be seen, a pattern is developing and if it is to be continued then a swing back right is due. Or the pattern could be broken.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
It seems our tones cannot keep a good poll swing going.
I was wrong last week – the Newspoll contract appears to run out at the end of June so there could still be one or two of them before Robo-Galaxy takes over.
Over to you, the discerning reader.