Poll Sum 27th May

pollpic

poll20header

THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 13,329 Australians polled.

One Poll, Essential 12/05 was deleted

One poll, the almost identical Essential 26/05 was added

poll27a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll27bNote:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll27c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,210,200 Votes

ALP 7,789,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll27d

A difference of

3.864% or

579,600 voters.

Exactly the same numbers as last week. Essential was almost a carbon copy from a fortnight ago

The interest next week will be if the lines move closer together or further apart next week. That will be a crucial factor in the chances of an early election.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

This time, although the Coalition went up, the ALP was nearly static and the sum of the ALP and the Greens went up!

The polls had to raid the “Others” to find extra votes for the Coalition.

poll27e

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll27f

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll27g

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Next week all the immediate post-budget polls will expire and new polling will begin to show how Budget 2.0 is being received.

Almost certainly it will be held to be better than Budget 1.0 (or, as it has become, Budget 1.7.4) but will that be enough to win back enough votes for our current PM to risk an early election.

It will be an interesting tightrope. If there is only a small swing, he will again be at risk of a palace coup. If it is almost enough to win then he may be pushed by his office czarina into that early election in the hopes that an election swing may appear.

Of course it could swing the other way and then all the walls in Canberra will be in danger.

2:

I think this is the final week we shall see Newspoll. I believe it will be replaced by more frequent Galaxy Polls. I wonder if PUP numbers will be included.

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 Over to you, the discerning reader.

 

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