THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
Saw a total of 13,323 Australians polled.
Three polls, Morgan 3/05, Newspoll 4/05 and Essential 5/05 were deleted
Six polls, Reachtel 12/05, Galaxy 16/05, Ipsos 18/05, Newspoll 18/05,
Morgan 18/05 and Essential 19/05 were added
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,210,200 Votes
ALP 7,789,800 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
A drop of around a quarter of a million voters in a single week!
The effect of hip-pocket budgeting.
Sometimes I wonder if Australia deserves democracy!
The worry for the Left, and for Australia, is that this is third drop since Mid-February, each one a little lower than the previous one and each rise less than the previous fall.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
This time, although the Coalition went up, the ALP was nearly static and the sum of the ALP and the Greens went up!
The polls had to raid the “Others” to find extra votes for the Coalition.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
Newspoll revealed one of its secrets in its poll this week. How it creates its “Two Party Preferred” number. “Based on preference flows from the last election, where Labor is allocated 80 per cent of Greens votes and 60 per cent of others, the ALP has extended its 13-month lead over the government in two-party-preferred terms to be ahead by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.”
Other polls, especially Morgan, give that historical number, as well as asking specifically where the respondents’ second preference would go. That number is much more current and believable.
Bob Ellis has a few things to say about the Newspoll and the Oopsies poll (sorry – Ipsos Poll)
The Ipsos Poll is the first to give parity to the Coalition in around a year. Could this be the first sign of an early election?
Over to you, the discerning reader.