Poll Sum; 13th May

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 POLL SUMMARY

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 7,752 Australians polled.

Two polls, Reachtel 27/04 and Essential 28/04 were deleted

One poll, Essential 12/05 was added

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,077,600 Votes

ALP 7,922,400 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

5.632% or

844,800 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

As the budget approached, all polling firms except for Essential held off from publishing any numbers.

I expect four polls within 48 hours now. It will all be included in next weeks poll sum.

2:

Yes, a drift continues towards the right. The smiling face on Crocodile Morrison is fooling some of the electorate.

I will never forget what he did to asylum seekers looking to Australia for safety. And I will never forgive him for that!

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Over to you, the discerning reader.poll13header

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