Poll Sum; 6th May

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POLL SUMMARY

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 THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 10,304 Australians polled.

Two polls, Morgan 20/04 and Essential 21/04 were deleted

Three polls, Morgan 3/05, Newspoll 4/05, Essential 5/05 were added

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,008,150 Votes

ALP 7,991,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

6.558% or

983,700 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

All that guff in the Oz this morning about just how well idiot boy is doing against Shorten in the “Preferred PM Stakes” was exactly that. It was to disguise the fact that the L-NP slipped a point against the ALP in the Two Party Preferred Handicap. And Morgan agreed with them. There was a slippage to the left. What was inexcusable was the lie in this sentence; “While Labor’s primary vote has fallen to its lowest since October at 35 per cent, the ALP continues to hold a two-party-preferred lead over the Coalition, of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.

“Continues to hold?” ignores the fact that the previous Newspoll, of 13/04 had the margin at 49/51.

Four pars later, the correct situation is explained but by then most readers will have left the article!

This is not a Newspoll flaw – It is an Australian lie!

2:

What did interest me in the Newspoll were the Primary numbers. The increase of ‘Others’ to 14% is most unusual and may explain why the ALP Primary number is so low. BTW, the L-NP Primary dropped 2% while the ALP Primary dropped just 1%

 3:

Changing polls, the Essential Poll asked a question; “Q. How concerned or unconcerned are you about the current costs of each specific expense for your household?

One of the specific expenses was “Internet” and there was an option “House-hold does not have this expense“. Just 1% of those polled said they did not have that expense.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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