Poll Sum; 29th April

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POLL SUMMARY

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THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD

Saw a total of 9,429 Australians polled.

Three polls, Ipsos 12/04, Newspoll 13/04, Essential 14/04 were deleted

Two polls, Reachtel 27/04 and Essential 28/04 were added

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,038,150 Votes

ALP 7,961,850 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

6.158% or

923,700 voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The PM had unavoidable public commitments this past week and so we all saw him.

Could it be that the swing left this past seven days is a reflection of this fact?

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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