THIS TWO WEEK PERIOD
Saw a total of 9,429 Australians polled.
Three polls, Ipsos 12/04, Newspoll 13/04, Essential 14/04 were deleted
Two polls, Reachtel 27/04 and Essential 28/04 were added
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,038,150 Votes
ALP 7,961,850 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The PM had unavoidable public commitments this past week and so we all saw him.
Could it be that the swing left this past seven days is a reflection of this fact?