Poll Sum; 22nd April

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poll22header

THIS WEEK

Three polls, Reachtel 1/04, Morgan 8/04, Essential 8/04 were deleted

Two polls, Morgan 20/04 and Essential 21/04 were added

A total of 9,475 Australians were polled

Polla22

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Pollb22

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,121,700 Votes

ALP 7,878,300 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll222pp

A difference of

5.044% or just

756,600 voters.

 

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll22majors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll22minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

poll22alpgre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

That invisibility of abbott continues to work. It shows what a strange mess Australian politics is in when the best support the bought and sold media can give its favourite son is to stop talking about him. Those numbers, while still looking good for the ALP, are showing a trend back to the right. We are almost back to the 2pp we had six months ago. Not a good situation.

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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