Three polls, Morgan 23/03, Newspoll 23/03, Essential 24/03 were deleted
One Poll, Reachtel 1/04 was added
A total of 4203 Australians were polled
Yes, only two polls this week. It seems Essential took a holiday today and so today’s expected poll will probably appear tomorrow.
It will be in next week’s Poll Sum
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,963,750 Votes
ALP 8,036,250 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
A swing of around 1% to the Left.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
The number this week is back over 50%
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
Just the one new poll this week and that is a week old now. In the meantime the PM has not been in evidence and so it would be reasonable for his numbers to be up just a tad.
It would seem that the three monthly Newspoll summary doesn’t think much of him. 45-55% 2pp and an ALP lead in each and every state. With Bill Shorten leading him in the preferred PM polls in each state as well.
If this budget doesn’t gain instant universal approval then I fear for his position and I fear for him, personally. He is already showing signs of personality instability and losing his “preciousssss” could tip him over the edge into a Mordor-like state of self-destruction.
No, I do not like what he has done, is doing and will do to my country but I do worry for his humanity.
Speaking of Bill Shorten and his apparent shortcomings as a leader of the ALP I had a bit of a say about that yesterday.