Poll Sum; 1st April

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POLL SUMMARY

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  THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 17/03was deleted.

One Poll, Essential 31/3 was added

A total of 7862 Australians were polled

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 20-80 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,879,750 Votes

ALP 8,120,250 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

8.270% or

1,240,500 voters.

A swing of around 70,000 voters to the Left.

Which will appear to drop next week as Morgan leaves the Summary.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back over 50%

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I was fascinated by one outcome in the NSW election. The “Almost Final” primary votes shows an interesting fact of the Australian electoral system.

NSWPrimary

The “Nats” and the Greens have almost the same % of the vote. Yet one has 16 seats in the new Parliament and the other maybe has as many as just 4.

Yet the Liberal representative on the ABC panel on election night was outraged that the Greens had a concentrated vote in four electorates and this somehow reduced the credibility of the Greens. Somehow she missed the point that the Rural Socialists have been doing that for generations!

One day Australia will break free of its political amnesia and remember that all “Liberal” Governments are coalitions with a gerrymandered minor party.

Disagree? Look at, not only the NSW numbers but also at the National’s numbers in the polling above.

2:

I will repeat myself again, as our PM-thing keeps doing. As our PM-thing keeps doing. There is no way tony abbott should sleep well tonight! His budget is less than two months away and last year’s budget is still in crisis mode. Budget night will be the next big downer for the PM.

3:

Who will be the last person to vote for PUP?

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 1st April

  1. Pingback: Poll Sum; 1st April – Ærchies Archive – Digital Detritus | winstonclose

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