Poll Sum; 25th March

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POLL SUMMARY

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THIS WEEK

Three Polls, Newspoll 9/03, Essential 10/03 and Morgan 10/03 were deleted.

Three polls, Morgan 23/03, Newspoll 23/03, Essential 24/3 were added

A total of 7863 Australians were polled

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,913,800 Votes

ALP 8,086,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

7.816% or

1,172,400 voters.

A substantial swing of nearly 300,000 voters to the Left.

Despite the rogue Newspoll

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is over 49%

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It was sad to see that Chris Uhlmann on ABC News tonight followed the News Ltd line and only took note of the rogue Newspoll. He did not even mention that other polls had been released.

2:

Here is a graph of the 2pp without the rogue Newspoll. It shows an additional 1/2% swing either way! There is no way tony abbott should sleep well tonight!

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3:

While all right wing supporters and promoters are raving over the sudden change in Newspoll’s 2PP numbers, perhaps we should compare that change with this chart which shows a distinct lack of change!  Can anyone say, “This is a special Newspoll for the NSW election.”?  There is no consistency in the overall poll.

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I will repeat myself, as our PM-thing keeps doing. There is no way tony abbott should sleep well tonight!

 

 

4:

Morgan publishes a series of breakdowns of their polling – Here is a chart from that information in this week’s poll.poll25morgan

 

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

5 responses to “Poll Sum; 25th March

  1. K Murphy was commenting that “we will have to wait for the trend”. That’s sums up the 4th for you, here is the trend.
    Thanks AA

    Like

  2. We known which drum Uhlmann beats and it must make for a happy home life as he is married to a Labor MP.

    Like

  3. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    More number crunching scrumptious by Archie

    Like

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