Poll Sum; 18th March

pollpic

 

 

poll18head

THIS WEEK

Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03 and Essential 3/03 were deleted.

Morgan Poll from 10/3 was missed last week due to an email fault so has been added this week. Essential 17/3 was added

A total of 7927 Australians were polled

poll18a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll18b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll18c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,009,800 Votes

ALP 7,990,200 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll18majors

A difference of

6.536% or

980,400 voters.

A substantial swing of over 100,000 voters to the Left. The disappearance of the Ipsos poll had the effect I expected.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

poll18majorsprimary

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll18minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back to near 49%

poll18alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I am still impressed by the gap between the two major parties. The probability of continuing confusion within the Liberals will come to a head again, probably after the Budget, possibly late in the year.

2:

Regardless of the Liberal leadership, the numbers in the Senate continue to be the real but unacknowledged problem for the Government. The reality of the cross-bench is that there are eight individuals there, and six are needed to pass legislation. While it is becoming apparent that Ricky Muir tends towards the “working man” side and David  Leyonhjelm is a right-wing libertarian, the others are much more complex. I do not envy the Senator with the responsibility for herding these cats!

3:

The news for NSW is not so good. A Morgan Poll today shows NSW State voter Primary Votes as: L/NP 46.5 (+3.5) ALP 33.5 (-2.5) GRN 11.5 (+1). With just over a week to go it looks like Luke Foley has an impossible mountain to climb and NSW residents need to get used to the idea of no longer owning their poles and wires!

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s