Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03 and Essential 3/03 were deleted.
Morgan Poll from 10/3 was missed last week due to an email fault so has been added this week. Essential 17/3 was added
A total of 7927 Australians were polled
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,009,800 Votes
ALP 7,990,200 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
A substantial swing of over 100,000 voters to the Left. The disappearance of the Ipsos poll had the effect I expected.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
The number this week is back to near 49%
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
I am still impressed by the gap between the two major parties. The probability of continuing confusion within the Liberals will come to a head again, probably after the Budget, possibly late in the year.
Regardless of the Liberal leadership, the numbers in the Senate continue to be the real but unacknowledged problem for the Government. The reality of the cross-bench is that there are eight individuals there, and six are needed to pass legislation. While it is becoming apparent that Ricky Muir tends towards the “working man” side and David Leyonhjelm is a right-wing libertarian, the others are much more complex. I do not envy the Senator with the responsibility for herding these cats!
The news for NSW is not so good. APoll today shows NSW State voter Primary Votes as: L/NP 46.5 (+3.5) ALP 33.5 (-2.5) GRN 11.5 (+1). With just over a week to go it looks like Luke Foley has an impossible mountain to climb and NSW residents need to get used to the idea of no longer owning their poles and wires!