Poll Sum; 11th March

pollpic

 

poll11head

 

redblue

THIS WEEK

Three Polls, Newspoll 23/04, Morgan 24/03, Essential 24/02 were deleted.

Two Polls, Newspoll 9/03, Essential 10/3 were added

A total of 6184 Australians were polled

poll11a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll11b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll11c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,061,850 Votes

ALP 7,938,150 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

poll11majors

A difference of

5.842% or

876,300 voters.

A major swing to the right of another 1.3%. The gap is narrowing but I predict that next week, with Ipsos out of the count things will swing back to the Left again.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

Which it does this week.

poll11minors

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll11majorsprimary

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back to near 49%

poll11alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The polls are still seen to be moving right. This is the Ipsos effect and with them out next week the abbott leadership will again be under threat. Actually it is now. The Right Wing’s favourite poll has the Coalition back at 55/45 and abbott is severely disliked, even by his own Party’s supporters!

I am expecting another spill when Parliament resumes. If not then we may have to wait until the last quarter of the year by which time Morrison will have had time to rehabilitate his image and make a successful move on the leadership.

How does Prime Minister Scott Morrison sound to you?

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s