Poll Sum; 4th Mar

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POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

46.427%|53.573%

6,964,050|8,035,950

 

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THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 17/02 was deleted.

Two Polls, Ipsos 2/03, Essential 3/3 were added

A total of 8913 Australians were polled

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,964,050 Votes

ALP 8,035,950 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

7.11% or

1,071,900 voters.

A major swing to the right of another 1.5% but still over a million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

poll04minors

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just below 50%

poll04alp+gre

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I, along with many other poll watchers, was stunned when the Ipsos poll came out Monday and showed a 4% loss in Primary to the ALP and a 4% gain in Primary to the L-NP. This was translated into a 3% swing either way in the 2pp to 51/49. I read that this was because the spill had failed and there was total support for the PM. Somehow I do remember a lot of discussion in the media, which would have been seen by those polled, about another spill in the party room this week. Yet on Monday morning there was this Ipsos poll which showed an apparent major swing back to the L-NP which was still within the margin of error. Not that that fact was mentioned anywhere. Suddenly THEN the move for a new spill was “almost dead”.  On Monday morning after a weekend of wild expectations promoted by the MSM we were told the electorate was happy with the new stability of the Government. I felt there was something strange going on. Today the Essential Poll confirmed that strangeness. Essential picked up exactly NONE of that alleged Ipsos swing.

 2:

Antony Green has written an amazing blog post in which he counsels us all to almost expect an ALP victory in the NSW State election.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

5 responses to “Poll Sum; 4th Mar

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    Sheer number crunching brilliance and analysis as usual

    Like

  2. Green’s blog was fascinating. I had read how Baird was and should be worried but didn’t quite understand why, until Green. The NSW election will be interesting to see how the country vote goes, Lock the Gate, anti CSG & No power sell off all could be big factors for non-city votes.

    As to Ipsos poll have read it has an LNP bias. If there had been that much of a movement you would expect to see some change in Essential. If any change a slight movement down in primary vote for Libs but not overall with rounding.

    Anyway biggest indicator of polls is how many rock solid policies Abbott is ditching.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Baird will come close to losing NSW thanks to Lock the Gate and Alan Jones

    Like

  4. If Baird doesn’t run a flawless campaign he could lose this election,just like Newman did up here.”’

    Like

  5. It will need to be a clever campaign as as well. Mentioning Obeid and Co will simply remind the electorate that the Coalition lost 12 members to corruption and misbehavior!

    Like

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