Poll Sum; 25th Feb

pollpic  pollsum25

 

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THIS WEEK

5 Polls; Reachtel 5/02, Galaxy 7/02, Newspoll 8/02, Morgan 9/02, Essential 10/02 were deleted.

Three polls; Newspoll 23/02, Essential 24/02, Morgan 24/02 were added.

A total of 7,483 Australians were polled

poll25a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll25b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll25c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,855,300 Votes

ALP 8,144,700 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Polldifference25

A difference of

8.596% or

1,289,400 voters.

A definite swing to the right of around 3% but still 1.3 million more voters prefer to have no L-NP Government.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

pollmajorprimary25

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

pollminorprimary25

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is back just above 50%

pollalp+gre25

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It seems we are back to pre-spill numbers with the two Murdoch pollsters being quite sympathetic to the Government. Possibly setting up for another spill motion sometime soon. I wonder if it will be before or after the NSW election, which, by the way, could be a whole lot closer than is being assumed out there in Poll-land.

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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