Poll Sum; 18th Feb

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THIS WEEK

3 Polls, Galaxy 31/01, Ipsos 1/02, Essential 3/02 were deleted.

Only one poll, Essential 17/02 was added.

It seems the polling industry was suffering a bit of a hangover after Spillmania.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,643,650 Votes

ALP 8,356,350 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

11.418% or

1,712,700 voters.

Another small drift to the Left so still over 1.7 million voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

The number this week is approaching 53%

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POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

Only Essential poked its head above the parapets this week. All other polls were suffering from fatigue. So there was just a slight change from last week.

2:

Two interesting opinions from the Essential poll were that 61% of those polled do not expect Abbott to be PM at the next election and also, 49% of people expect the ALP to win the next election. Just 23% expect the L-NP to win.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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