Poll Sum; 11th Feb

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THIS WEEK

3 Polls, Essential 28/01, Morgan 28/02, Reachtel 28/02 were deleted.

5 polls, Reachtel 5/02, Galaxy 7/02, Newspoll 8/02, Morgan 9/02, 10/02 Essential were added.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,648,900 Votes

ALP 8,351,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Polldifference11

A difference of

11.348% or

1,702,200 voters.

Now over 1.7 million voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

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MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

To me, the drop in the “Others” is a clear case of polarisation as most of those lost votes have gone to the three majors.

pollminorprimary11

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

Last week I called a 51% combined vote almost unprecedented.

The number this week is in excess of 52%

pollalp+gre11

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsosNewspollessential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The numbers above are all from before the vote at 9am on Monday when the Liberal Party Room decided to go with the death of a thousand gaffes.

The first test will be the next set of polling. The next test will be the Submarine Captain’s Call and the reaction of the South Australians to the sneaky use of weasel words by the PM.

The test after that will be the political survival of the Treasurer.

2:

NO! Do not expect numbers like this to continue. They cannot!

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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