Poll Sum; 4th Feb

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pollsum04

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THIS WEEK

One Poll, Essential 20/01 was deleted.

Three Polls, Galaxy 31/01, Ipsos 1/02, Essential 3/02, were added.

poll04a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll04b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,775,200 Votes

ALP 8,224,800 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Polldifference04

A difference of

8.788% or

1,449,600 voters.

Now approaching 1.5 million voters.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

pollmajorprimary04

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

To me, the drop in the “Others” is a clear case of polarisation as most of those lost votes have gone to the three majors.

pollminorprimary04

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

A combined 51%+ number is almost unprecedented!

pollalp+gre04

POLLING SOURCES

For this postipsos

essential poll morgan pollgalaxy pollpollreachtel

 

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

There is only one story in town and that is how much of a bounce the Coalition will get from a Prime Ministerial change.

Last July I compared NSW State and Federal polling and found what appeared to be a 7% “abbott effect”.

https://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2014/07/09/the-abbott-effect/

It will be interesting to see if this follows through after a Liberal Midnight assassination.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 4th Feb

  1. It is not fair if the Lnp boot Abbott out . we the people should have the right and the pleasure of booting this out of touch, arrogant narcissistic, lying prick out on his egotistical arse….

    Like

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