One Poll, Essential 20/01 was deleted.
Three Polls, Galaxy 31/01, Ipsos 1/02, Essential 3/02, were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,775,200 Votes
ALP 8,224,800 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of
Now approaching 1.5 million voters.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
To me, the drop in the “Others” is a clear case of polarisation as most of those lost votes have gone to the three majors.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
A combined 51%+ number is almost unprecedented!
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
There is only one story in town and that is how much of a bounce the Coalition will get from a Prime Ministerial change.
Last July I compared NSW State and Federal polling and found what appeared to be a 7% “abbott effect”.
It will be interesting to see if this follows through after a Liberal Midnight assassination.