The past two weeks saw 5413 people polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 20th January.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
One Poll, Essential 20/01 was added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,912,900 Votes
ALP 8,087,100 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
(I have assumed no change since the last polling on 17th Dec and this poll confirms that as it has exactly the same 2 Party Preferred number)
A difference of
A small swing back towards the Right.
One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.
Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.
Now both majors have Primaries beginning with a “3”
No wonder the ALP fears the Greens.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
For this post
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
I haven’t posted this for a few months but it may just put the wind up some L-NP members.
I have allowed a 2% swing from the current pool summary. Of course, that could go either way, but this is the view the pessimists in the L-NP will be taking.
All seats on this list could be lost by the L-NP
Under this scenario the L-NP and Independents would win 67 seats.
The ALP could form Government with 83 seats!