Poll Sum; 21st Jan

pollpic

 

pollheader21

redblue

 

The past two weeks saw 5413 people polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 20th January.

midheader

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

One Poll, Essential 20/01 was added.

poll21a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll21b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll21c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,912,900 Votes

ALP 8,087,100 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

(I have assumed no change since the last polling on 17th Dec and this poll confirms that as it has exactly the same 2 Party Preferred number)

pollchart21

A difference of

7.828% or

1,174,200 voters.

A small swing back towards the Right.

PRIMARY VOTE

One of the numbers the true wonks look at is the Primary vote given to the majors.

Once upon a time it was expected that the L-NP primary would be around 45% while the ALP could only win with a Primary beginning with a “4”.

Now both majors have Primaries beginning with a “3”

No wonder the ALP fears the Greens.

pollmajorprimary21

 

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

pollminors21

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

pollalp+gre21

POLLING SOURCES

For this post

essential poll morgan poll

 

 

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

I haven’t posted this for a few months but it may just put the wind up some L-NP members.

I have allowed a 2% swing from the current pool summary. Of course, that could go either way, but this is the view the pessimists in the L-NP will be taking.

All seats on this list could be lost by the L-NP

polllostseats21

Under this scenario the L-NP and Independents would win 67 seats.

The ALP could form Government with 83 seats!

 

redblue

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s