Poll Sum 14th Jan

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Coincidently we begin this year

exactly where we left off last year!

 

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I am late this week because Morgan and Essential snuck two federal polls in amongst the expected Qld Polling.

For the first Poll Sum of 2015, just two polls are included.

This week saw 3,638 people polled

Data as at Wednesday night, 13th January.

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Polls Included and Totals Polled.

All 2014 polls have been deleted

Two Polls, Morgan 12/01, Essential 13/01 were added.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll14c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,846,000 Votes

ALP 8,154,000 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

(I have assumed no change since the last polling on 17th Dec and this poll confirms that as it has exactly the same 2 Party Preferred number)

pollchart14

A difference of

8.720% or

1,308,000 voters.

No change, not even a single vote, from the end of last year.

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

pollminors14

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

pollalp+gre14

POLLING SOURCES

For this post

essential poll morgan poll

 

 

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The important point about this Poll Summary is that it is very small, only covers a few days and only from two points of view. The strangest result of all is that the 2PP comes out exactly as it was before Christmas.

 

2:

PUP has now reached 2% and it will be interesting to see how the Qld moneybags of Palmer affect his polling on a National scale. He appears to have around 5% in Queensland.

3:

The Greens have sunk below 10% and “Undecided” have climbed above 10%. This accounts for the apparent drop in the “ALP+Green” vote. They haven’t gone to the Coalition but to “Others”.

4:

Essential reports that Shorten is preferred 37% as PM to abbott 35% with 28% undecided.

 

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

3 responses to “Poll Sum 14th Jan

  1. Well done buddy glad to see that you have not included newscorpse newspoll as that is not to be relied on

    Liked by 1 person

    • I haven’t included it this time because they haven’t had a federal poll since before Christmas. I do include them when available as they are a part of the polling scene and any bias is balanced out by the other polls. Especially Morgan which seems to go opposite to Newspoll. Ipsos is the fascinating one. I still haven’t worked out their bias.

      Like

  2. Fantastic work. Very clear.

    Like

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