Coincidently we begin this year
exactly where we left off last year!
I am late this week because Morgan and Essential snuck two federal polls in amongst the expected Qld Polling.
For the first Poll Sum of 2015, just two polls are included.
This week saw 3,638 people polled
Data as at Wednesday night, 13th January.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
All 2014 polls have been deleted
Two Polls, Morgan 12/01, Essential 13/01 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,846,000 Votes
ALP 8,154,000 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
(I have assumed no change since the last polling on 17th Dec and this poll confirms that as it has exactly the same 2 Party Preferred number)
A difference of
No change, not even a single vote, from the end of last year.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
For this post
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The important point about this Poll Summary is that it is very small, only covers a few days and only from two points of view. The strangest result of all is that the 2PP comes out exactly as it was before Christmas.
PUP has now reached 2% and it will be interesting to see how the Qld moneybags of Palmer affect his polling on a National scale. He appears to have around 5% in Queensland.
The Greens have sunk below 10% and “Undecided” have climbed above 10%. This accounts for the apparent drop in the “ALP+Green” vote. They haven’t gone to the Coalition but to “Others”.
Essential reports that Shorten is preferred 37% as PM to abbott 35% with 28% undecided.