Poll Sum; 17th Dec

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This past fortnight saw 10,468 people polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 16th December.

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Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Two Polls, Morgan 1/12, Newspoll 1/12 and Essential 2/12 were deleted

Three Polls, Newspoll 15/12, Morgan 15/12, Essential 16/12 were added.

Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,846,000 Votes

ALP 8,154,000 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

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A difference of

8.720% or

1,308,000 voters.

A significant swing back to the left of 292,200 voters this past week.

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

Pollminors17

Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

pollalp+greThe important 50% threshold has finally been passed!

POLLING SOURCES

For this post

essential pollNewspoll morgan poll

galaxy poll

ipsos

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The slide in popularity of the Liberal Party continues apace. These are quite possibly the final polls for 2014. Having said that there may be a move by the Murdoch Polls to hold one unplanned poll to find out if a “terrorist” attack has improved abbott’s standing. Personally, I remember John Howard after the Twin Towers attack and he was so much more Prime Ministerial that tony. It seems we have a Prime Minister who can neither walk the walk or talk the talk!

 

2:

PUP continues to fall in popularity and relevance. (this is a repeating comment)

3:

The Greens are holding at around 11% while “others” and “Undecided” are gaining ground. Is this where some of the PUP voters are going? Is this where some of the Coalition loss is going?

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

One response to “Poll Sum; 17th Dec

  1. I think that if News ltd had been thinking of having a poll to test Abbott ‘leadership’, then after tonight they’ll abandon it. In various news programs the main story was the ‘rift betw the PM & NSW police on whether Monis had a license’. Quite a change & no PM wants to be THE story when trying change the perception in voters minds that they have a dud as a PM

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