This past fortnight saw 10,393 people polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 9th December.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
Two Polls, Reachtel 20/11, and Essential 25/11 were deleted
Three Polls, Galaxy 7/12, Ipsos 7/12, Essential 10/12 were added.
Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,992,100 Votes
ALP 8,007,900 Votes
Which leads to – – –
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
I apologise for the oddness of the charts this week –
Excel is misbehaving and I’ll sort it out during the week.
(Hear that Excel? I’m coming for you!)
A difference of
A swing back to the right of 92700 voters this past week.
The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.
The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.
At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.
Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.
For this post
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The meltdown for the Liberal leadership appears to be continuing apace. What is your date for a change? And I did have a nightmare during the weekend. So I allowed my paranoia to show,
PUP continues to fall in popularity and relevance. (this is a repeating comment)
The Greens have won a second seat in the Victorian Lower House while the apparent Labor win in the South Australian by-election is no longer as certain as it appeared on Saturday night!