Poll Sum; 10th Dec

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This past fortnight saw 10,393 people polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 9th December.

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Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Two Polls, Reachtel 20/11, and Essential 25/11 were deleted

Three Polls, Galaxy 7/12, Ipsos 7/12, Essential 10/12 were added.

Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.

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Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

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Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to25-75 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

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Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,992,100 Votes

ALP 8,007,900 Votes

Which leads to – – –

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

I apologise for the oddness of the charts this week –

Excel is misbehaving and I’ll sort it out during the week.

(Hear that Excel? I’m coming for you!)

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A difference of

6.772% or

1,015,800 voters.

A swing back to the right of 92700 voters this past week.

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties and the “others” will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

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Whenever I see a poll it is my habit to add the ALP and Green votes together.

The Left remains the Left even though it is now in two parts.

At the moment the other Left Parties are lumped in “Others” so I cannot count them.

Anyway, here is what that addition of ALP + Greens looks like this week.

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POLLING SOURCES

For this post

essential pollNewspoll morgan poll

galaxy poll

ipsos

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

The meltdown for the Liberal leadership appears to be continuing apace. What is your date for a change? And I did have a nightmare during the weekend. So I allowed my paranoia to show,

https://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2014/12/08/leading-in-the-polls/

 

2:

PUP continues to fall in popularity and relevance. (this is a repeating comment)

3:

The Greens have won a second seat in the Victorian Lower House while the apparent Labor win in  the South Australian by-election is no longer as certain as it appeared on Saturday night!

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

2 responses to “Poll Sum; 10th Dec

  1. Reblogged this on polyfeministix and commented:
    Latest update. Brilliant as always Archie.

    Like

  2. 2.Greens winning the Lib seat is significant as it will put the heebee jeebees up the Libs. Up to now the Libs have always believed that Greens was always a vote taken from Labor, rather than a vote on policies
    3.Pup put out 2 messages y’day 1st by Clive celebrating a win on killing copayt, then within hours by Lazarus calling it a ‘woe’ payt. Is this a sign of more division in party? I also had feeling that Wang & Lazarus differed on Uni fees, time will tell but looks as though voters can see not to trust Pup while Clive in charge.

    1See this mornings headline from Lima $200m for GreenCFund is Julie acting alone. what does the chaperone say. I feel if Abbott goes he’ll run to GG 1st & take them all . Abbott on tele with the tell tale cough saying Aus a good world citizen, after asked abt Jules at Lima

    Like

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