Malaysian Airlines MH370 and AMSA

After I posted the first part of this discussion, I was gratified to see it had been mentioned in the Poll Bludger Blog.

Then I read the comment and was a little miffed.

I think this is the usual blogging overreach. Australia starting searching the so called southern corridor before the info from the satellite came to the fore. It appears aircraft were assigned to the search of the Southern Ocean on the 17th and started the search on the 18th. HMAS Success & merchant vessels were added to the search by the 19th. This info is available on the AMSA website. The announcement re the satellite photos of possible debris was not the start of the search but was a change to the main search area. Abbotts speech might certainly have been grandstanding but not think significant to the conduct of the search.

Not only had the commentor (kevjohnno) denigrated bloggers as “Overreaching”, a cry I normally hear from the under-reaching MSM defending its patch but he also completely disregarded what was said in the post.

So please allow me to explain my reasoning step by step and I apologise in advance for excessive wordage.

Yes, aircraft were assigned to the search on 17 Mar and that was recorded in Release No 1 (All times will be Eastern Daylight Savings Time)

 

amsa1

 

Then on the 18th, as kevjohnno stated, the search actually began and all the assets in use were detailed.

amsa2

Not a single sea asset mentioned yet. The search area is “about” 1500nm sw of Perth. That is around 2800km sw of Perth

Yes, Kevjonno, the search did begin on the 17th but that was not the point of my post. Hang around, things may become clearer.

 

amsa3

 

Here we are at 6.30am on 19th and we are told that some sea-going vessels are now being involved. The search area is 600,000 sq Km more than 3,000Km SW of Perth.

amsa4

It is now 5pm on the 19th and for no apparent reason the search area has been reduced to 305,000sq Km and moved closer to Perth. This is despite the comment that “Neither the ships or the aircraft have reported sighting anything in connection to the aircraft.” Additional ships are mentioned and there is still no Naval involvement, or even the possiblity of naval involvement. Look at the language in the release. “A further ship is expected to arrive on Thursday afternoon.” This was released on Wednesday.

This is despite the fact that HMAS Success is within an hour of leaving Fremantle. Planning MUST have been in train for some hours at least yet it is not mentioned.

Two facts to consider, kevjonno –

  • Search area reduced and moved closer to Perth
  • No mention of HMAS Success

 

amsa5

 

Suddenly we are at 6.30am Thursday morning. Now we come to the unexplained part of the events. There is no mention of size of search area or its location. There is mention of merchant vessels but no mention of HMAS Success. It is now 12 hours since she set sail.

To digress for just a moment, many will remember that a Pommy chap named Bullimore was trapped under his yacht in this general area (100E 52S)  some years ago. Australia sent a frigate to rescue him. A frigate travels at around 28Kts. HMAS Success is an oiler and travels at around 17Kts. This is a sign of how far our naval resources have dropped.amsa6

Now, at 3.30 pm on Thursday, an hour after the Prime Minister has reported to Parliament that there is satellite evidence of debris, the area is “redefined” to 2500Km south west of Perth. This miniscule redifinition is from the 2,600Km south west of Perth announced on Wednesday at 5pm! HMAS Success is mentioned at last, 22 hours into its voyage. The mention gives the impression that the despatch of this vessel was recent and urgent although no details are given.

RCC Australia received an expert assessment of commercial satellite imagery on Thursday.

Yet action on the information in that “Expert Assessment” appeared to be being acted upon some 24 hours before with the dispatch of HMAS Success.

This is apparently where I, as a blogger, “over-reached.” I took the facts we are all now aware of and reached a conclusion. One which you, kevjonno, disagree with while making some basic errors about the order of events.

amsa7

 

Somehow some echoes of disquiet within the wider community must have been heard within AMSA because they felt it necessary to add to the details about the time of receipt of the satellite imagery.

This followed the receipt of satellite data imagery from the Australian Geospatial Intelligence Organisation on Thursday morning. The imagery, on analysis by AGO,identified two objects possibly related to the missing aircraft. The images were captured on March 16..Due to the volume of imagery being searched,and the detailed process of analysis that followed , the information was brought to the attention of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on Thursday morning

There is no explanation of why HMAS Success left 22 hours before this imagery was received. There is no explanation of why the search area was reduced and moved prior to the apparent receipt of this imagery. Of course, AMSA may be technically correct. They may have received an analysis of the satellite data on Thursday morning. It is equally possible, within the accuracy of that statement, to have received other, unmentioned, analysis at an earlier time.

That is why I asked the question. What did Tony Abbott know and when? Was the satellite information kept under wraps until the PM could announce it at Question Time on Thurday 20th March? Was it a coincidence that the PM was due to receive severe questioning on the Arthur Sinodinos affair during that question time and that it would be advantageous for him to deflect the Press, and the public, to a new shiny thing?

THAT is the question I posed, kevjonno. What interference was there in AMSA’s role?

And if asking that question, after finding and considering the facts, is “over-reaching” I accept that criticism with pride. I would rather over-reach than under-reach as our MSM has increasingly done for the past decade.

 

 

8 responses to “Malaysian Airlines MH370 and AMSA

  1. Hi Archie,

    Nothing like the timeline to show that in fact you have done a thorough Analysis. thank you mate. I urge you to overreach as many times as you can.

    There is no doubt in my mind that the press are being manipulated by the Liberal party machine.

    I made a comment to one of our Press friends that this was like the Tampa. meaning that the information was dribbled out in a fashion which was inconsistent with the actual decision making process and was political in nature. the response came back that it was nothing like the Tampa.

    Whilst you and I have lived in the real world and had real Jobs and real life experiences, the Press gallery have had nothing of the sort. They have no idea what they are dealing with most of the time and too lazy in my opinion to actually go out and find out about it.

    In fact Joh Bejeke Peterson summed up the way conservative politicians deal with them. He called it feeding the chooks. You call it underreach. I call it sloth ad lazyness.

    Of course the childish attempt to hide the truth is nothing more thasn an attempt to hide the type of satellite assets we have access to, which can read an A4 typed letter with 100% accuracy from Space.

    Of course the bits in the water are from MH370. They just don’t want us to know because they want to keep the people in the dark and fed us on bullshit.

    Like

  2. Reblogged this on Shit's Gotta Stop and commented:
    I’ve avoided posting anything re: MH370 – ‘too soooon!’ But aside from all the possible conspiracy theories (Diego Garcia, Diego Garcia!), there are genuine ‘real-world’ questions that CAN be answered by certain politicians (here’s looking at you, Tony…).
    So, I’m reblogging this, from ÆRCHIES ARCHIVE, with thanks. Go on, read it.

    Like

  3. Archie, your “over-reaching” is perfectly reasonable and acceptable to me. Your research, as Vince says, is thorough. On the other hand, Abbott’s underhand behavior is that of an over-reaching egotistical maniac whose arrogance and cunning has no bounds.

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  4. You are missing the most important point of all. Jindalee is capable of tracking a Cessna. An unidentified plane entered Jindalee’s range. Standard procedure would be to attempt to make contact. With re response a warning would be issued. With still no response, jets would have been sent to intercept, interact and escort to land. Within hours, then, Jindalee and the RAAF would know exactly where this plane was. There would have been no need for a search.

    This did not happen. Why? One report indicates that Jindalee was being used to monitor for refugee boats. Instead, therefore, of doing it’s main job – monitoring the Indian Ocean, it was diverted to aid a political advantage.

    Ask these questions: if Jindalee had been doing its job, could those people have been saved? Could the families have been spared weeks of despair? What if the rogue plane had been a terrorist attack on Perth like 9/11? With no surveillance, the whole of our west coast was unprotected for political gain. The Abbott government stands accused of criminal culpability in my view.

    A high level enquiry needs to be held into this.

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    • Nice comment, Tony. Indeed, why didn’t JORN pick up MH370? I’m going to ask that question repeatedly… at risk of being labelled ‘melodramatic’; but I agree with you that Australia’s entire west coast appears to have been left unmonitored for political point-scoring and inhumane illegal quasi-military action much further north…

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      • Good luck with the asking. Journo’s first have to find out what JORN is. Then they have to find out what it does. Only then will they be able to connect the dots and ask an intelligent question. Oops. I was talking about Australian Journos. They are incapable of asking an intelligent question!

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    • I’m just a humble blogger with limited sources and no real expertise in Australia’s defence systems.

      So I thank you for bring this information to my notice. I shall find a way to use it.

      Oh, I do not expect this Government to open an enquiry, nor do I expect any intelligent questions from the Journos of the MSM!

      Like

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