Poll Sum; 24th Sept





This past fortnight saw 11,036 people polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 23rd September.



Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Three Polls; Morgan 08/09, Newspoll 09/09, Essential 09/09 were deleted

Four Polls; Reachtel 18/09, Morgan 22/09, Newspoll, 22/09, Essential 23/09 were added

Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.



Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.


Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred


Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,116,000 Votes

ALP 7,869,000 Votes

Which leads to – – -



A difference of 753,000 voters.

A swing back to the Right of 153,000 voters..


The two biggest minor parties will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.






The Greens support held up this week. I will make my oft-repeated cry when looking at the Nat’s 3%-4% polling – “Can anyone spell the word “Gerrymander”?


PUP held its low level. Perhaps Clive needs to pump more money into a continuing campaign to overcome the Jacqui Lambie effect.


The swing to the Left has stopped with a swing of around half a percent back to the abbott led Government. I am still asking, “How much of this is due to the terrorist fear campaign being waged by that Government?” If the swing does not continue will further action be needed.


Oh yes! And whatever happened to the Budget?




Over to you, the discerning reader.

God and Australia

Seriously,Australia, it's decisions like electing Tony Abbott that make me glad I made your continent soi far away from everyone else.

Seven Years for Peter Greste

The news that Peter Greste has received a sentence of seven years in an Egyptian goal will be met with justifiable outrage from his fellow Australians. He is a journalist who was doing his job.greste

We are all aware that the Laws in other countries are a bit different from ours.

Drug charges can and have attracted the death penalty or very long sentences. These sentences have at least been imposed after lengthy trials with both sides of the case being aired and obvious justice being done.

The outrage in  this case is that the evidence was sketchy and irrelevant, there was no defence heard. This is just not acceptable. There must be some semblance of justice when foreign nationals are sentenced and imprisoned.

That is a rule we apply here in Australia. We would never imprison people without a fair trial. It is totally unAustralian.



We have concentration camps for refugees.

People who have done nothing wrong and are simply trying to survive. They are not given a chance of freedom. The Government has said so. And the unimposed sentence could well be longer than seven years!

Yet we will become a nation of angry people because some mob of forriners has done exactly what we have done.

To one of our own.

Do we have the right to say anything at all about this sentence and their unfairness to one of our citizens.

I feel immensely sorry for Peter and his family.

But we have forfeited our right to complain.



TO BE HEARD before the Court of Public Opinion

Charges of Piracy, Kidnapping and Murder

DEFENDANTS: Individually and severally, Tony Abbott, Prime Minister of Australia; Scott Morrison, Minister for Immigration of Australia: Lieutenant General Angus Campbell, Head of Operation Sovereign Borders, All Commanders and Crew Members of vessels involved in Operation Sovereign Borders; Staff of Manus Island Detention Centre.

Piracy, “a felony, such as robbery or hijacking, committed aboard a ship or aircraft”

There are multiple charges of PIRACY against the defendants.

There have been numerous examples of Piracy in the past two months. Vessels were removed from their Master’s control and their authority has been usurped.

These events happened on divers occaisions includingt but not limited to, on, or about 13th Dec 2013; 23rd Dec 2013; 1st Jan 2014; 8th Jan 2014; 11th Jan 2014; 16th Jan 2014; 31st Jan 2014; 5th Feb, 21st Feb 2014.

Kidnapping “abducting by force or fraud”orange

Multiple charges of KIDNAPPING are also being brought against the defendants.

On the aforementioned dates, at least 315 human persons had their liberty taken from them. While some of those persons were abducted within Australian territorial waters the rest were abducted on the high seas and taken, against their will, to assorted places. Some were forcibly or fraudulewntly taken on board Australian flagged vessels and illegally transported through Australian Waters and across the High Seas before being abandoned at sea.

Murder “to kill someone unlawfully with premeditation or during the commission of a crime”horror

TWO charges of Murder are being brought against the Defendants.

At the Manus Island Detention Camp, on Monday, 16th Feb 2014, Reza Barati was deprived of his life in an unlawful riot. Eyewitness accounts state that the riot was caused by G4S staff who had been tasked with the running of the Detention Camp. The death of the said Reza Barati occurred inside the Detention Camp.

Another Iranian was evacuated to Australia with critical neck injuries and it is now accepted he has since died and his relatives in Ahwaz, Iran notified.

The prosecution reserves to right to bring further charges against some or all of the defendants as evidence comes to light.

The prosecution demands custodial sentences for all defendants!

Please note, in internet terminology, IANAL.

Refugee Boat Timeline Updated to January 11th


Lady Penelope on call

11th Jan

No Information released by Herr ÜberGrossenFührerMorrison’s Sea Security. Supreme Leader Abbott has said that we are at war with people smugglers and secrecy is essential in a war!



I’m a little confused in this new format – I could add stuff at the bottom of the post but it feels better to have it up here.

Just after I posted this morning, I received information,gosford1 anonymous of course, that the 23rd Dec “return” was real and involved  7 Rohingya, 3 Tamil, 4 Iranians, 29 from Afghanistan & Pakistan – in all 43 people including 2 women and 2 chidren. There were 2  sick older people who went to hospital.”

In other information which I have had for several days with no confirmation, there may well have been another FOUR unreported returns.

All this is added to the rumour that there was a refugee vessel which left Indonesia on the 7th of this month.

Secrecy like this is normally seen in repressive dictatorships!


Back on the 28th Dec last year, Vince O’Grady alerted me to the fact that the icebreaker, “Ocean Protector” had left Christmas Island, disappeared and had reappeared in Singapore. We suspected that she possibly was there to either escort the two patrol boats which have been gifted to the criminal Sri Lankan Government. The distances involved being longer than the range of a patrol boat it seemed a possibility. When she didn’t move from Singapore we came up with the alternative theory that she was being serviced. We were wrong on both counts.

Now we know why she was there.

The South Coast Register is reporting that, “Australian customs ship the Ocean Protector prepared to leave Singapore, understood to be carrying 10 large lifeboats that will be used to send asylum seekers back to Indonesia if their own boats are unseaworthy.

Wheels within wheels?

Of more concern is the comment at the end of the article. Remembering that everything being said and done by Indonesia must be viewed through the lens of this year’s Indonesian Election, how should we take this? “It is understood the Abbott government’s silence over the policy of turn-backs is smoothing the way for Jakarta to tolerate the practice. General Hurley was recently assured by his Indonesian counterpart General Moeldoko that the Indonesian military would accept boat turnarounds. It is understood that shifting the sensitive issue to a military-to-military level is going some way to placating Jakarta, provided the Australian government says little about the practice.

“RETURNS” is easier to say than “tow/turn back”

ABC reports that “The UN refugee agency says it is awaiting an explanation from the Australian Government over reports asylum seeker boats have been forcibly returned to Indonesia. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) is warning such actions may place Australia in breach of its obligations under international law. “UNHCR is seeking details from the Australian parties about these recent reports,” said spokesman Babar Baloch. But Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, Scott Morrison, has insisted that “border protection is a matter of national sovereignty”.


19th Nov, ”  “An Australian Customs patrol boat had to rescue about 40 asylum-seekers at the weekend after accidentally ripping the bow of the boat away and causing it to start sinking. Multiple sources have told Fairfax Media that the patrol boat was trying to tow the fishing vessel when it damaged the front of the vessel, causing it to take on water.

13th Dec, 47 people Rote Island

1st Jan 45 people Rote Island

I am hearing some rumours about another “return” dated around 23rd Dec in the area of South Java. Sheer, unconfirmed rumour but without official information this is the way we have to go. I am expecting to hear about more “returns” as it would be surprising if the Government were to be spending several millions of dollars on Lifeboats if there were only three towbacks up until now.



Christmas Island; The monsoon trough lies to the north of Christmas Island, and is expected to move south towards the island during Friday. Forecast for the rest of Saturday 11 January Partly cloudy. Winds: Variable 5 to 10 knots. Seas: Up to 1.0 metre. Swell: South to southwesterly 1.5 to 2.0 metres. Max 28 (BOM)

Cocos Island; The monsoon trough lies to the north of the islands. A moderate southeasterly trade flow is expected over the next few days. Forecast for the rest of Saturday 11 January Chance of a shower. Winds: Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots. Seas: 1.5 to 2.0 metres. Swell: Southerly 2.0 to 2.5 metres. Max 30 (BOM)

Cirabon; 29C, wind; 5-10Kmh SW, showers est 3mm


arrival list


The weekly figures I have collated.

This will be updated each week.



To find older information click here

(the dates are all “skewiff” so keep opening “new page” to find recent posts)


Refugee Boat Timeline – Updated to September 17th

This list is based on what is being reported in the MSM and what I can find from a couple of specialist sites. This is to give a layman’s impression of what is going on and may say more about the MSM than the facts.

The updated, weekly figures I have collated.
This will be updated each week.


This is as at 11.15am WST. It may be updated further if any more boats arrive today,

To stop this posting from becoming as large as a Tolstoy novel, in future I will drop off any daily information more than about a week old.

To find the older information click here


SEPT 17th; Of course there have been no reports in the MSM. MSM? Muddied Stream Media!

The Hazara Refugee Website reported last night that an asylum seeker vessel with 205 people on board was intercepted by the Royal Australian Navy after the vessel sent out a mayday call on Sunday morning. The boat was about halfway between Indonesia and Christmas Island when it sent out a call for distress at 8.11am with reports it was sinking.

A spokesperson from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority said “Rescue Co-ordination Centre (RCC) Australia received a call for assistance from a vessel at 8.11am this morning, It issued an urgency broadcast to shipping regarding the vessel at 8.56am.” A merchant vessel responded to the broadcast, and it was due to meet the boat at 1.30pm. HMAS Parramatta, a frigate, and HMAS Pirie, a patrol boat, were also sent to meet the vessel, the Parramatta intercepting the boat at 1pm.

I do not recall seeing this emergency report on the AMSA website on Sunday morning. The alert was given at 7am WST, I was checking the site by 7:30 WST and assistance was not provided until 11am WST. Yet at no stage was anything noted on the AMSA website. I noted on Sunday 15th that there was a lot of unexplained activity around Christmas Island.

I have noticed the same this morning. One vessel disappeared while I was doing the screen shot  – the MV Diamond Princess a cargo vessel registered in Thailand. The other is a cargo vessel flagged in China named the Tong Cheng 702. They have been acting just like military vessels looking for SIEV’s. It is interesting that these vessels have a habit of disappearing completely from the Live Ships chart. They don’t go anywhere. They just disappear. Then different vessels appear out of no where!



SEPT 16th; As expected, nothing reported in the MSM

Customs updated its media releases this morning with THREE new vessels. This explains the activity I have seen around Flying Fish Cove over the past 48 hours.

From Sept 13th there is an addition. ACV Triton, operating under the control of Border Protection Command intercepted a suspected irregular entry vessel south-east of Ashmore Islands today. Initial reporting suggests there are four passengers and two crew on board.

From 14th Sept, “HMAS Ballarat, operating under the coordination of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia), rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north of Christmas Island overnight. Initial reporting suggests there are 23 passengers and two crew on board.”

From 15th Sept, “HMAS Ballarat, operating under the coordination of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia), rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north-north-east of Christmas Island last night. Initial reporting suggests there are 76 passengers and three crew on board.

That is, by my count, NINE vessels which have arrived since Tony “I will stop the boats from day one” Abbott was elected.

SEPT 15th; Nothing reported in the MSM

The Live Ships Sites showed a lot of activity around Christmas Island overnight and this morning. I have been unable to find any reports of vessels being intercepted. I shall watch the beginning of next week with interest. Someone, somewhere will let something slip. Of course it may have just been training manouvres.

With the looming blackout from the Governement I expect my Customs’ notifications to disappear along with the AMSA emergency alerts. Mike Smith and Scott Morrison will stop reporting arrivals. It may be that discovering arrivals will stop being a real-time thing and become delayed and inaccurate guesswork. But then I am a sucker for conspiracy theories *grin*

SEPT 14th; Nothing reported in the MSM

This is unsurprising as it is not in Rupert Murdoch’s interest to let the Australian people know that Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison have already begun to fail in their new positions.

Then I spotted a tweet from a noted journalist that another Asylum seeker vessel with 25 people on board has arrived. I assume it is to do with the maddened gadflys shown on the Live Ships website which were the ships near Christmas Island last night and this morning.

That is now five vessels in eight days since “I will make a difference from Day One” Abbott was elected.

SEPT 13th; Nothing reported in the MSM

Customs issued a press release (I received it via email) this morning – Border Protection Command intercepts vessel; HMAS Armidale, operating under the control of Border Protection Command, intercepted a suspected irregular entry vessel north-west of Christmas Island overnight. Initial reporting suggests there are 158 people on board.

It seems Indonesia really is going to be a problem for Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison in their condescending plans to use that pesky country full of unimportant brown people as a destination for asylum seekers.

SEPT 12th; A passing radio report about a suspected asylum seeker vessel was overheard on ABC local radio yesterday while I was driving from Bunbury to Perth. I suspect it was the one reported by the Hazara’s yesterday.

SEPT 11th; Nothing reported in the MSM

On Sept 12th The Hazara Refugee website reported. “HMAS Glenelg operating under the coordination of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s Rescue Coordination Centre (RCC Australia) rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north of Christmas Island yesterday. Initial reporting suggests there are 74 passengers and two crew on board.

SEPT 10th;

I spotted a bit of movement from HMAS Glenelg and HMAS Parramatta last evening and did some checking. Amongst the mud, dirt and slime of Mike Smith’s blog of hate I found a reference to an AMSA notice I had missed. “PAN PAN FM RCC AUSTRALIA 100607Z SEP 2013 AUSSAR 2013/6118 INDIAN OCEAN NORTHERN PART CHART AUS 4071 A) REFUGEE VESSEL WITH 100 POB REQUESTING ASSISTANCE IN VICINITY 07-48.31S 105-56.51E. B) VESSELS WITHIN 10 HOURS REPORT BEST ETA”

SEPT 9th : One vessel reported in the MSMno boats

Armidale (I think) has been doing its demented gadfly trick overnight so I expect reports of a vessel being intercepted later today. AMSA has had no distress reports for three days.

3pm update – As expected a boat was in the vicinity of Christmas Island and, with some unusual passengers, it made the MSM. ABC Online News reported (I first heard it on ABC Local Radio), “Two journalists have arrived on Christmas Island after travelling by sea on an asylum seeker boat escorted by HMAS Armidale. Customs officials say there were 57 passengers and two crew on board. There is speculation the journalists are from The New York Times.

SEPT 8th : No Vessels Reported in the MSM

The Hazara Refugee website reports “A SUSPECTED asylum-seeker boat carrying 88 people has been intercepted by Customs northwest of Darwin. Initial reporting suggests there are 88 passengers and two crew on board.

SEPT 7th : No Vessels Reported in the MSM

Customs reported that, on Sept 6th, “HMAS Armidale and HMAS Parramatta operating under the coordination of the Australian Maritime Safety Authority’s Rescue Coordination Centre rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north-north-east of Christmas Island today. Initial reporting suggests there are 90 passengers and four crew on board.

Following today’s election, Scott Morrison will now become Immigration Minister and he has stated in the past that he sees no need to continually report arriving vessels. So things may go underground very soon.

SEPT 6TH; No Vessels Reported in the MSM


HMAS Armidale is travelling NE from Flying Fish Coce at 18 kts

Late today the Hazara Website reported “HMAS Armidale and HMAS Parramatta rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north-north-east of Christmas Island today. Initial reporting suggests there are 90 passengers and four crew on board.”

SEPT 5TH No vessels reported in the MSM

SEPT 4th No vessels reported in the MSM

SEPT 3rd No vessels reported in the MSM

Nothing spotted in any of my usual sources. Although there is an interesting vessel on the live ships map – it is allegedly travelling at 81.6kts on a heading of 148. WOW!

The other thing I have noticed is that the MSM have gone back to a June tragedy to fill their front pages. So there is nothing current which interests them. Perhaps this is so that, should they get their desired election result, all lowering of refugee numbers can be credited to the incoming Government. You read that conspiracy theory right here, first! It seems to be EIGHT days since a confirmed Asylum Seeker boat has arrived in Australian waters.

The Hazara Website reported on 3rd Sept that “HMAS Parramatta rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north-west of Christmas Island overnight. Initial reporting suggests there are 31 passengers and two crew on board.” and also that “HMAS Pirie rendered assistance to a suspected irregular entry vessel north-west of Christmas Island this morning. Initial reporting suggests there are 31 people on board.

Fiji and The Rudd Solution

Refugees should not be sent to Manus Island.

Fiji’s Foreign Minister Ratu Inoke Kubuabola yesterday slammed Australia and the “Rudd Solution”.

In an address at the Australia-Fiji Business Forum in Brisbane on Monday, Mr Kubuabola said Australia’s PNG plan, which Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced earlier this month, had been made without proper consideration of the consequences.

Mr Kubuabola said Fiji was ”decidedly less-than happy” with the PNG deal, saying Australian politics was affecting Fijian affairs and demanded that Australia consult with the region.

”It is our business. Before this goes any further, we want thorough regional consultation … We demand to have our voices heard.

So what is this “Fiji” and why should we listen to it? fiji1

Since independence there have been four coups in Fiji, two in 1987, one in 2000 and one in late 2006. The military has been either ruling directly, or heavily influencing governments since 1987. The Military has based its armed takeovers from democratically elected Parliaments on a dislike of that part of the Fijian community which had an Indian ancestry.

Over a hundred years, the descendents of the Indian labourers brought into Fiji by British landowners has grown to become a majority in the country. The military coups has caused many of those of Indian descent to leave the country. To become refugees within the wider world.

Now this racist dictatorship has decided to butt in on an agreement made between two other countries. Australia and PNG have chosen to deal with the problem of people dying at sea in a humane and potentially successful way.

Why have Fiji chosen to interfere In Australian Politics?

Commodore Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama

Commodore Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama

Australia-Fiji relations have been stretched to breaking point in recent years. Along with a number of other countries, Australia applied sanctions to the country in 2006 after a military coup that installed Frank Bainimarama as leader. In 2009, after being suspended from the Commonwealth of nations and from the Pacific Islands Forum, Fiji expelled the Australian high commissioner, but diplomatic relations between the two countries resumed in 2012.

Now this dictatorship has seen a chance for revenge.

The Fijian Foreign Minister said Australia’s policy was ”high-handed” and ”arrogant” and threatened to destabilise Melanesian societies. ”This was done to solve a domestic political problem and for short-term political gain without proper consideration of the long-term consequences. This deal and those mooted with Solomon Islands and Vanuatu clearly threatens our interests by altering the fundamental social fabric of any … country that accepts a deal with Australia.”

He went on to say his country could not “‘remain silent when the current Australian government dumps this problem, which is arguably in its own making, on our doorstep”.

For an Australian problem, you have proposed a Melanesian solution that threatens to destabilise the already delicate social and economic balances in our societies”

This racist diatribe has come from a lackey of his own country’s dictator who created his own wave of refugees.

Like the confected outrage allegedly found in low level Indonesian responses and the NIMBY comments quoted from a few Manus Islanders these Fijian comments will be used by sections of the Australian Media in their never-ending need to embarrass the Australian Government. Giving legitimacy to an illegitimate dictator.

Aligning Bainimarama and Morrison in common cause.

And stop calling it “Mannus”. It is pronounced “Marnus”.


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