This past fortnight saw 7898 people polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 21th October.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
Three Polls, Galaxy 2/10, Morgan 6/10, Essential 7/10 were deleted
Three Polls, Morgan 20/10, Newspoll 20/10, Essential 21/10 was added.
Any polls which come out after midnight Sydney/Melbourne time will be included in next week’s charts.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,143,000 Votes
ALP 7,857,000 Votes
Which leads to – – -
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
A difference of 714,000 voters.
a swing of 39,000 voters to the ALP
The two biggest minor parties will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
For this post
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
For this week at least, the swing has begun to move back towards the Left. Just 39,000 voters but it is a start. I expect to see a concerted MSM push to get that swing moving the “Right” way.
The Greens have lifted their vote to almost 11.5% while PUP hits yet another low! PUP is now below 3.5% and continues to lose relevance everywhere except in the Senate!.
Iraq-war #3 and shirt-fronting visiting National Leaders have done nothing to improve tony abbott’s popularity or the popularity of his Government.