Lib | ALP
Differential = 834,000 Votes
Polls older than 14 days have been discarded
This week 14,631 people were polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 29th July.
Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.
The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
Three polls discarded, Newspoll 13/07/2014. Morgan 14/07/2104, Essential 15/07/2014 were deleted.
Four polls, Galaxy 25/07/2014, Morgan 28/07/2014, Newspoll 28/07/2014, Essential 29/07/2014 were added.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 7,083,000 Votes
ALP 7,917,000 Votes
Another major drop in ALP support.
Which leads to – – -
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP has now begun in earnest.
It can only be hoped it stops there!
The minor parties will have a major impact come election day.
Here is how they are going.
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
It seems as though the MH17 effect is continuing to have a beneficial effect on abbott’s numbers. His popularity is increasing and the general concensus across parties is that he is doing a good job. I admit to being in the minority on this question. I predict that abbott’s support will continue to rise until something tragic happens to an Australian abbott has sent to the Ukraine. “Shit happens” won’t cut it then!
Again, what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.
If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 68 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 82 seats, a majority of 14.
Over to you, the discerning reader.