Poll Sum; 30th July


new

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

7,083,000|7,917,000

47.22|52.78

Differential =  834,000 Votes

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Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 14,631 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 29th July.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

redblue

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Three polls discarded, Newspoll 13/07/2014.  Morgan 14/07/2104, Essential 15/07/2014 were deleted.

Four polls, Galaxy 25/07/2014, Morgan 28/07/2014, Newspoll 28/07/2014,  Essential 29/07/2014 were added.

 

Poll30a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll30b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

Poll30c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 7,083,000 Votes

ALP 7,917,000 Votes

Another major drop in ALP support.

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Pollchart30

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP has now begun in earnest.

It can only be hoped it stops there!

MINOR PARTIES

The minor parties will have a major impact come election day.

Here is how they are going.

pollchartminors30

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

1:

It seems as though the MH17 effect is continuing to have a beneficial effect on abbott’s numbers. His popularity is increasing and the general concensus across parties is that he is doing a good job. I admit to being in the minority on this question. I predict that abbott’s support will continue to rise until something tragic happens to an Australian abbott has sent to the Ukraine. “Shit happens” won’t cut it then!

2:

Again, what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

Pollseats30

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 68 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 82 seats, a majority of 14.

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Over to you, the discerning reader.

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Refugees at Sea; 28th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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28th July

 

HOW GOOD IS MORRISON’S SECRECY?

One of my worries has always been that due to the secrecy of Operation Sovereign Borders I would miss some of the attempts to reach Australia. Even worse, that we may lose asylum seekers who set off yet are never recovered or reported.
Luckily the unofficial  group of “Watchers in the Dark” to which I belong has, as one of its members, Kaye. Last night Kaye contacted me with the information that the 153 asylum seekers who have been landed at Cocos  Keeling Islands have been assigned SIEV (Suspected Irregular Entry Vessel) number 885. Kaye’s previous confirmed SIEV Number was the vessel on December 14th, 2013 which was SIEV 871.
Although I keep this list, and add to it as more asylum seeker boats, which HAVE been stopped so are not really there, are intercepted by Operation Sovereign Borders, it is the result of other’s work. Oliver Laughland ( @oliverlaughland) from the Guardian, Sarah Whyte (@SarWhyte )  from Fairfax and George Roberts (@George_Roberts) from the ABC are the main sources although the Watchers in the Dark are often ahead of both the MSM and my own efforts.
So, when I was given the SIEV number of the vessel which carried 153 Tamils by Kaye last night our immediate fear was that some vessels had been missed off the list, or that some vessels had sunk without trace.
A close look at all non-official reported arrivals has revealed that we, the watchers, can take a big bow. It seems we have broken through all of Morrison’s paranoid secrecy. Every boat is accounted for with no leftovers.

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DETAILED ARRIVAL RECORDS

Here is the list of reported attempts to reach Australia. From Mid-December (SIEV 871) and today (SIEV 885) I have reduced the records to “bare bones” by removing much information about the people, concentrating on the boat and added the potential SIEV Numbers in blue.
The only uncertainty I have  is about the vessel from late February which I have designated SIEV 880.

27th June – 153 people ex India. This is now reported by the Guardian as SIEV 885.

23rd June – 1 vessel reported “off North West Australia” by the Guardian. Apprehended by ACV Triton. SIEV 884

12th June “Sithumina” ex Batticaloa, Sri Lanka . SIEV 883

2nd May – 54 from Sri Lanka – intercepted by Sri Lankan Navy. No SIEV Number

27th Mar – “A BOAT carrying about 50 asylum-seekers is heading for Christmas Island ” No further reports of this incident.  SIEV 882

25th Feb – One lifeboat containing about 26 people found on Sth Coast of Indonesia. LIFEBOAT  SIEV 881 ?

21st Feb – THREE vessels reported by “The Weekend Australian” as being turned back since 7th Feb.  Do these three  include SIEV 879 as well as  SIEV 880 & SIEV 881

5th Feb – one vessel returned to Pangandaran. around 31 people all apparently adult males. LIFEBOAT SIEV 878

3rd Feb – Reportedly, ONE vessel intercepted off CI, unknown number of passengers taken into custody. SIEV 879

31st Jan - Reportedly, TWO vessels being pushed back to Indonesian waters by Customs Vessels. (does one end up at Pangandaran?) LIFEBOAT SIEV 878

16th Jan – One lifeboat returned to Sukabumi with 40 adult males from the Middle East (reported 6th Feb) LIFEBOAT SIEV 877

11th Jan – One vessel left Cisarua, West Java with 56 people on board. Put into lifeboat and marooned off coast of Indonesia. SIEV 876

8th Jan – One vessel, returned to South Java from within sight of CI, shots fired, vessel sank close to shore. 25 people + 2 crew. SIEV 875

1st Jan – one vessel off Darwin towed back to Indonesian waters (sometime during this week),, 45 people including 7 women.  SIEV 874

23rd Dec – one vessel, 43 people returned to South Java. SIEV 873

19th Dec – One vessel with 97 asylum seekers. Origins unknown. SIEV 872

14th Dec – 70 refugees of “diverse” origins landed at CI by HMAS Stuart (Sri Lankans, Indians and Middle Easterners) This was definitely SIEV 871 according to Kaye’s records.

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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 25th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

bar2

25th July

 

Morrison’s Boast About To Bust!

Oliver Laughland of the The Guardian is reporting; “Tamil asylum seekers held at sea will be taken to camp on Australian mainland.  Exclusive: Blow for Australia’s hardline policy as 157 people held at sea to be taken to Curtin detention centre.. . . . . senior sources have told Guardian Australia of the government’s plans. It is understood that the government plans to take the asylum seekers to Curtin detention centre in Western Australia, not Christmas Island. The customs vessel carrying the asylum seekers will land on the Cocos Islands on Saturday.”

It seems the Ocean Protector, carrying 157 Tamil asylum cocos Islandseekers who have been held as prisoners for between three and four weeks, is on its way to the Australian territory of the Cocos Islands, where the Department of Lies, Secrecy and Torture plans to transfer the asylum seekers to the Curtin Airbase on the Australian mainland.

The Ocean Protector has been hidden from view for about a month when it was last seen leaving Darwin on 23rd June. The fact that the legal asylum seekers are being landed at Cocos indicates two things. Firstly the Ocean Protector has been closer to India than Australia, hoping against hope that the Indian Government would take them off Australia’s hands.

Secondly, there are no eyes on Cocos Island to see the physical condition of these people. These men, women and children have been at sea since June 13th. Six weeks! At Cocos no one can see you on a stretcher!

Arrival at Curtin Airbase has that same advantage for the Concentration Camp guards!

 

UPDATE

Sarah Whyte of The Age has reported “Fairfax Media understands a SkyTraders Airbus 8320 has been booked to travel from Cocos Island to Curtin detention centre in north Western Australia on Saturday. A source said immigration officials had also tried to book accommodation on Cocos Islands on Saturday to facilitate the transfer and flight for the asylum seekers.

Sarah has come to the same conclusion I have below. That this decisiuon is due to bad High Court news.

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WHY THIS BACKFLIP?

This decision to give up the propoganda points of “over six months with no illegal arrivals” and “we HAVE stopped the boats” indicates that Morrison and the Government have been receiving some very bad news from their lawyers about the high court case into the legality of their detention under the Maritime Powers Act.

Rather than lose the case and have a precedent they do not want to live with, the Government will change circumstances so that the case does not go to judgement!

That is the way I see it and I don’t care how many people call me cynical!

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arrival list

 

Does the L-NP Kill Australians? Of Course Not


Quietly lying in bed at 3am, I thought of all the big tragedies which have hit Australia during my lifetime.

Not just the ones inside our borders but events world-wide.

And I found a disturbing FACT. Not an opinion, not a conclusion but a FACT.

Up front, I do not think that coincidence is the same as causality.

Although excessive coincidence – – -

I have left out natural disasters here. Bushfires and cyclones and floods for this is a nation of fires and flooding rain. That is a part of being Australian. But there have been horrible, horrible accidents and human-caused tragedies over the years.

I am limiting myself to post-1950. I remember very little prior to then as I was born in 1944. My lower limit on the death toll is 25. Arbitrary, I know but the line has to be drawn somewhere. I have also excluded wars (WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) although each one has cost many Australian lives and each one was instituted by a Liberal-National Party Government.

So here is the list I have compiled,

many of which I remembered  during that inconvenient 3am thoughtfest.

1:-

I began at the current tragedy. The one in the Ukraine. With about 30 Australians killed. And my deepest sympathies go out to all who have been touched by this event. The political words are being spoken on behalf of Australia by tony abbott.

Our Nation is under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at the moment.

2:-

Then my mind drifted back to 2002 and the Bali Bombings. 88 Australians were killed. Yes, I was touched by this event on a personal level. The political words which were spoken were spoken on behalf of Australia by John Howard.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

3:-

I remembered the horrible massacre at Port Arthur in 1995. 35 Australians died. The political words and actions taken on behalf of Australia by John Howard.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

4:-

Further back, there was the Granville Rail disaster in 1977. 83 Australians died. That time the political words were spoken  on behalf of Australia by Malcolm Fraser.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

5:-

The Westgate Bridge disaster in Melbourne, 1970. 35 Australians were killed. The political words were spoken on behalf of Australia by John Gorton.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

6:-

In 1968 there was a Vickers Viscount aircraft which crashed near Port Hedland. 26 Australians were killed. The political words were spoken on behalf of Australia by John Gorton.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

7:-

The William Booth Memorial Hostel fire. in Melbourne, 1966. 30 Australians died.The political words were spoken on behalf of Australia by Sir Robert Menzies.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

8:-

The Voyager/Melbourne naval disaster in 1964. 82 Australians died. The political words were spoken on behalf of Australia by Sir Robert Menzies.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

9:-

Air accident at Mackay, Queensland when an aircraft went into the sea in 1960. 29 Australians died. The political words were spoken on behalf of Australia by Sir Robert Menzies.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

10:-

Air accident near York, Western Australia in June 1950. 29 Australians died. The political words were spoken on behalf of Australia by Sir Robert Menzies.

Our Nation was under the control of the Liberal-National Party Coalition at that time.

 

EXCEPTION!

There was a road accident near Kempsie in 1989 which killed 35 Australians. Bob Hawke was Prime Minister.

Our Nation was under the control of the Australian Labor Party at that time.

 

SCARY CONCLUSION!

 

Excluding Bushfires, Floods and Cyclones,

91% of the major disasters since 1950,

Killing 25 or more Australians,

Have occurred under a

Liberal-National Party Coalition

The Next Three Word Slogan


A Fictional Tale

About Fictional Aliens masquerading as Human Beings

 

The scene; A despondent meeting in the Prime Minister’s Office.

tony abbott, “This Senate is so hard to control. They all have minds of their own and I can’t get stuff through. It makes me look weak.”

Peta Credlin, “Well, your popularity is so far down the tubes you cannot call a double dissolution. Rupert doesn’t have everything he wants yet so you cannot give the Government benches away. He will not like it!”

“Well what can I do” asks a querulous tony. “OH Wait! There has been a plane crash involving Australians. Surely we can use that somehow.

“True.” says Peta. “I remember a time when John Howard was way down in the polls and he found an international incident to cling onto and it helped raise him up in the polls.”

“That’s right!” cries abbott. “9/11. It worked for him. He found a scapegoat and things went really well for him.”

“Don’t forget the Russians are right next door and Putin is coming here for the G20 meeting.” Peta contributes.

“That’s right,” crows tony. I can start blaming the Russians now and Rupert’s  media will raise a huge hatred of them here in Australia. It doesn’t matter what he does overseas. Then I can ban Putin and any other Russians from coming here. That will win us the support of a majority of Australians.”

“Hmmmm,” Peta thoughtfully says. “There is not a lot of evidence that this has anything to do with the Russians. It seems the separatists got hold of this missile system when they overran one of the Ukrainian bases. It wasn’t supplied by the Russians. Some Eastern separatist fool decided to fire at will and ask questions later.”

“We don’t need to worry about complicated stuff like that even if it is true. We cannot make that into a three word slogan, no matter how hard we try. “Russians did it” is much more suited to convincing those dodos who vote for us. And it fits into Rupert’s headlines so well.”

“OK.” says Peta. So now we whip up anti-Russian feeling for about three weeks. Then we ban Putin from entering Australia. Then we can do the Double Dissolution thing and get proper control of an open and adult Parliament.”

“Yes!” concludes tony. “It worked for John Howard, it’ll work for me.”

At least, I hope it is a fiction.

 

How Dumb is Australia?


We all know why we dislike tony abbott.

He is a liar, he is loud, he dumbs everything and everyone down, abbotthe speaks in slogans, he is an embarrassmment to our country. He is botoxed, hair-dyed and, did I say a liar? Oh yes, I already did.

Yet he managed to get himself elected to the highest office in the land.

shortenNow I keep hearing people on the Left complaining bitterly that Bill Shorten is not doing anything. That he is not charismatic. That he is unelectable.

Yet he is not a liar. He does not speak at the level of the average five year old. He speaks with explanations and proofs and thoughtfulness. He is well presented and presents himself well. He does have lines on his forehead, the result of thinking.

He does not shout, he does not over-use slogans and he is considered in his statements.

The true evil of abbott and his minders, handlers and puppet-masters is that they have reduced Australia to the level of five-year-olds. We now demand even shorter slogans, dumber ideas and tabloid stupidity from our leaders and if they don’t give it then we will not elect them.

Bill Shorten is a man many countries would be proud to have as their Leader.

But not Australia, it seems.

He is not enough like the man we want him to replace.

Poll Sum; 16th July


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POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

45.28 | 54.72

6,792,000|8,208,000

Differential = 1,416,000

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Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 8736 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 15th July.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

redblue

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Four polls; Reachtel 26/06/14, Newspoll 29/06/14, Mogan 30/06/14, Essential 01/07/14, were deleted.

Three polls, Newspoll 13/07/14, Morgan 14/07/14, Essential 15/07/14 were added.

Poll16a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll16b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll16c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,792,000 Votes

ALP 8,208,000 Votes

Yet another significant increase for the ALP

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Pollchart16

The swing away from the Abbott Government continues to gather momentum.

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP has not yet begun.

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

Again, what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

Pollseats16

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 64 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 86 seats, a majority of 22. Bruce Billson, Warren Entsch and Peter Dutton are now in danger. Interestingly, there are NINE Qld seats in play.

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Several weeks ago I was phoned by a pollster working on behalf of an Education Group. I was asked about University fees, Gonski and other educational matters. In full disclosure,I live in Perth, Alannah McTeirnan’s seat.

I found the results of that poll the other day and it has little comfort for the Education Minister and many others.

NTEU-pollMondayMatilda

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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Drunk in Charge of a Country


After an evening with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Australian Prime Minister looked like this on Australian Morning Television.

Channel Nine’s Today co-host Karl Stefanovic calls out Prime Minister Tony Abbott for being “worse for wear” at the start of an interview Wednesday morning.

All for the sake of saké

abbottbender

The abbott Effect


Last night I caught up on my polling summary. It showed a very strong Federal position for the ALP.

There was also a stack of quarterly Federal polls divided into State responses from Newspoll.

Then this morning I woke to a Newspoll of the NSW State voting intention.

Mike Baird

Mike Baird

The numbers shown are; L/NP 43 (-3) ALP 31 (0) GRN 13 (+3). Newspoll does not show a separate number for the PUP as News Ltd has decided to remove as much air as possible from the uncontrollable PUP.

The TPP for the NSW State Election is L/NP 57 (-1) ALP 43 (+1), a differential of 14%.

This seemed a strange result as last night in my “Poll Sum” I had posted a chart of Federal voting intention in NSW showing a 50-50 TPP. Interestingly, the Greens vote was almost the same in both polls.

abbottThe NSW electorate clearly differentiates between the State and Federal organuisations of the L-NP.

Despite the ICAC scandals and the forced change of Leader, the State Party is strong with the electorate.

The Federal Government is barely holding its head above water in the home state of the Prime Minister.

Does tony abbott have that much effect on his own State’s voting intentions?

Has he, single-handedly, swung the NSW Electorate 7% against the L-NP?

Is that the true ABBOTT EFFECT?

Poll Sum; July 9th


new

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

45.63 | 54.37

6,844,500 | 8,155,500

Differential = 1,311,000

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Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 10140 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 17th June.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

redblue

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Two polls; Neilsen 23/06/2013, Essential 24/06/2014,

One Poll, Essential 8/07/2014 was added.

(I have not found a new Morgan or Galaxy poll this week.)

The Newspoll quarterly summary has not been included in these tables. Charts from that poll summary are included at the end of this post.

Poll09a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

 Poll09b

Two Party Preferred

Poll09c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,844,500 Votes

ALP 8,155,500 Votes

A significant increase for the ALP

Which leads to – – -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Pollchart09

The swing away from the Abbott Government continues to gather momentum.

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP is on hold.

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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

Just what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

pollseatsheader

 

Pollseats09

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 66 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 84 seats, a majority of 18. Bruce Billson and Warren Entsch is now in danger!

 

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For the Chart Addicts.

A series of charts showing Federal polling of some 6905 respondents gathered by Newspoll into their April-June Summary for this year.

Federal Numbers

Federal Numbers

Following is a series of charts showing the Newspoll numbers separated by State. (Tasmania did not have sufficient respondents to be given their own figures.)

The numbers are by State but the questions were about Federal intentions.

NSW Numbers

NSW Numbers

QLD Numbers

QLD Numbers

Victoria Numbers

Victoria Numbers

WA Numbers

WA Numbers

SA Numbers

SA Numbers

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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Refugees at Sea; 8th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

bar2

8th July

 

THREE REFUGEE BOATS?

A tweeted discussion has led me to conclude that there have not been two refugee vessels intercepted recently but THREE!

*************

Amanda Hodge of the Australian, on July 1st, reported “NZ distress calls suggest three boats diverted. REVELATIONS that New Zealand search and rescue authorities received two emergency calls from a foundering asylum vessel off Australia’s northwest coast last month have raised questions over whether Australian authorities secretly intercepted not two but three boatloads of Sri Lankan refugees in recent weeks. New Zealand Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse confirmed to The Australian that an asylum boat made two satellite calls to the Rescue Co-ordination Centre New Zealand seeking assistance and that the information was referred to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority. The calls are understood to have been intercepted on June 19 and June 20.

Eight days later, reporters and human rights organisations made contact with Sri Lankan asylum-seekers on a second boat which left the south Indian coast last month and was foundering 250km off the coast of Christmas Island with some 153 people on board. Sri Lanka’s official navy spokesman confirmed to The Australian last week that a third boat, spotted near Cocos Island last weekend and believed to be carrying as many as 50 Sri Lankans, had already been intercepted by an Australian customs vessel and that the asylum seekers on board would be handed over to navy authorities.

*******************

Oliver Laughland, Paul Farrell and Melissa Davey asked in theguardian.com, Monday 7 July 2014 11.55 AEST, ” What has happened to the other boatthe one reportedly carrying 153 Tamil asylum seekers?  Morrison’s Monday morning press release was silent on the fate of a reported second boat carrying 153 Tamil asylum seekers who departed from Pondicherry in southern India on 13 June. The boat’s existence has not even been confirmed by the Australian government, despite those on board contacting refugee advocates and journalists a week ago.

**************************

Sue Metcalfe has pointed me at a “PerthNow” report from 2nd July, which says “Meanwhile 50 asylum seekers whose Indonesian fishing boat was intercepted north of Christmas Island on Monday have been towed back to Indonesian waters in Australian taxpayer funded life boats behind the 2200-tonne Customs Vessel and ocean going trimaran RV Triton. Hundreds of people have been removed from Australian waters in expensive lifeboats since Operation Sovereign Borders began nine months ago.

*******************

Ray Hadley, in his regular interview with Scott Morrison yesterday asked about the possibility of a third vessel. In his curious non-informative syntax, Morrison said, “There is some suggestion about a third vessel today that I find those reports very curious um and ah people may be doubling up there a bit…

*****************

We know there was one vessel from Sri Lanka or India carrying 41 people (and a dog) and they have been returned to Sri Lanka. We almost certainly know there in a second vessel from India with 153 people on board who almost certainly are now on board “Ocean Protector” and are due to be returned to Sri Lanka the moment the High Court is disabled.

That leaves reports of 50 refugees from Indonesia or from India. ACV Triton is connected with this group and may well be holding them in a Prison Ship situation. With no indication from Sri Lanka that a third vessel is involved with them, it means Indonesia is a likely source AND destination for this elusive “Third Vessel”.

Since there have been no reports of orange lifeboats landing on Indonesian soil I am assuming that some notice is being taken of the Presidential Election due to happen tomorrow. Once that is out of the way then perhaps we shall hear a little more. From both Indonesian AND Australian sources.

***************

In the meantime our PM and Immigration Minister will

Lindsay Foyle in  today's New Matilda

Lindsay Foyle in
today’s New Matilda

continue to pretend that they went to the election saying “We will stop the boats from arriving” and this will save lives. In reality, they promised to “Stop the boats” and save lives.

So we now have a situation where we have no idea how many other, failed voyages have taken place and how many refugees have secretly drowned.

Morrison will simply say, “They didn’t arrive in Australia”.

As Ben Eltham, in today’s New Matilda says,This is a day of mourning for our once kind nation.
bar2

 

 

arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 7th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

bar2

7th July


YOU

 

BASTARD

 

HYPOCRITE

 

DOGTURD,

 

MORRISCUM.

 

41 asylum seekers

handed over to Sri Lanka

 

You have trashed

my Nation’s reputation!

 

BY HANDING INNOCENT PEOPLE BACK TO

THE CRIMINAL GANG RUNNING SRI LANKA.

 

When I am feeling rational again, I will update

this record of Australia’s shame.

MrMorrison

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 JUST TO REMIND EVERYONE

 

Relevant Articles of the

1951 United Nation’s Convention on Refugees

*published in today’s Guardian

Article 31:

Refugees unlawfully in the country of refuge

1. The contracting states shall not impose penalties, on account of their illegal entry or presence, on refugees who, coming directly from a territory where their life or freedom was threatened in the sense of article on, enter or are present in their territory without authorisation, provided they present themselves without delay to the authorities and show good cause for their illegal entry or presence.

2. The contracting states shall not apply to the movements of such refugees restrictions other than those which are necessary and such restrictions shall only be applied until their status in the country is regularised or they obtain admission into another country. The contracting states shall allow such refugees a reasonable period and all the necessary facilities to obtain admission into another country.

Article 32:

Expulsion

1. The contracting states shall not expel a refugee lawfully in their territory save on grounds of national security or public order.

2. The expulsion of such a refugee shall be only in pursuance of a decision reached in accordance with due process of law. Except where compelling reasons of national security otherwise require, the refugee shall be allowed to submit evidence to clear himself, and to appeal to and be represented for the purpose before competent authority or a person or persons specially designated by the competent authority.

3. The contracting states shall allow such a refugee a reasonable period within which to seek legal admission into another country. The contracting states reserve the right to apply during that period such internal measures as they may deem necessary.

Article 33:

Prohibition of expulsion or return (‘refoulement’)

1. No contracting state shall expel or return (“refouler”) a refugee in any manner whatsoever to the frontiers of territories where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.

2. The benefit of the present provision may not, however, be claimed by a refugee whom there are reasonable grounds for regarding as a danger to the security of the country in which he is, or who, having been convicted by a final judgment of a particularly serious crime, constitutes a danger to the community of that country.

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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 6th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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6th July

 MORRISON VISITS SRI LANKA

Our Immigration Minister is visiting Sri Lanka while the fate of over 200 Tamil refugees is still unknown.

We do know that he is going to the island which once was the Paradise of the Indian Ocean to formally hand over the patrol boats “Hervey Bay” and “Corio Bay” to the Sri Lankan Navy. It is legitimate to wonder why this formal ceremony is not being attended by our own Defence Minister.

Golding has his very reasonable say.

Golding has his very reasonable say.

One thing which has slipped under the radar is Morrison’s choice of words about the fate of the 200+ Tamil refugees. Again he has used the phrase, “ongoing” and his Sri Lankan counterpart continues to deny that a transfer has happened.

Media reports have quoted Commodore Kosala Warnakulasuriya saying a transfer of asylum seekers is .going ahead, but that it had not yet been decided if the transfer would happen at sea.  Commodore Kosala says he has no information about a plans for his Navy to receive passengers from either boat. “No, no, no. I have not told anything like that,” he said. “Even in the morning I got the information that someone has quoted me about some Sri Lankan Navy boat movement but I have not made that sort of a comment.”

My feeling is that the transfer will happen after Morrison returns to Australia.

In the meantime we will have the proud national distinction of being a Prison Ship Nation.

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WORLD NEWS

We in Australia often think that we are far from the centre of world events and have virtually no effect on the rest of the world. It is time we woke up to the fact that not only do we have an effect on the world but the world is also taking notice.

Right in the middle of the world is New York and the non-Murdoch New York Times has headlined “Australia’s Refugee Problem

The “Times” Editorial Board wrote, “Australia is pursuing draconian measures to deter people without visas from entering the country by boat. In doing so, it is failing in its obligation under international accords to protect refugees fleeing persecution.”

An impressive slap over the knuckles in the shadow of the UN Building.

In a reference to the on board  “four-question” judgement of refugee status, The Globe and Mail from Canada has written “Reports of Australia sending Tamil asylum seekers to Sri Lanka draws fire from UN

The United Nations has expressed “profound concern” about Australia’s handling of asylum seekers amid reports that scores of Sri Lankans will be handed over to their country’s navy after only a brief assessment by Australian authorities.

There are many other headlines I have seen online from right around the world. Australia is being universally condemned for its actions and is closer to being declared a pariah state than ever before! Any chance of avoiding the South African Apartheid penalty is diminished by the ALP’s endorsement of the Abbott/Morrison solution!

 

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INDONESIAN ELECTION

Next Wednesday there is the long awaited Presidential Election in our Northern neighbour. SBY will be bowing out as our friend in Java. So who will replace him?

It is a two horse race between the Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo and  ex- Suharto military commander, Prabowo Subianto.

Joko presents as a humble and unassuming man. He has been the Governor of Jakarta for a number of years and has a reputation for wanting a more equitable and prosperous nation. He has a good record on human rights.

Subianto, on the other hand has a much less savoury history.  His campaign rhetoric has been laden with xenophobic sentiment. He has  fled overseas twice, where he received his education and, at one stage, protection from Jordan. He married one of Suharto’s daughters and so has strong links to the Nationalist movement. He was dishonorably discharged from the Army because of anti-student actions during the last few months of the Suharto regime. A classic dictator-taught strongman. His election will cast doubt on the holding of any future Presidential elections.

Mr Joko had enjoyed a strong lead in the opinion polls but that has almost evaporated, with Mr Prabowo’s past-deficient image and professional campaigning seeing him enjoy a surge in support. A very Abbott-like figure.

From an Australian point of view, Subianto could be a disaster as he will be opposed to any return of refugees. Despite, or maybe because, he has Coalition-like support from big business he appeals to an exclusive Indonesian attitude. This does not bode well for co-operation with Australia.  His election could well result in a worse relationship between our countries if Abbott insists on sending refugees back.

It is also quite likely that refugees in or passing through Indonesia will be treated much worse that they are currently. Not a good outcome!

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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 3rd July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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3rd July

YESTERDAY and TODAY

TAMILS RETURNED TO SRI LANKA?

While I have been unable to confirm the rumours they have been so pervasive it is hard to reject them.

Especially when our Prime Sinister considers that the “Peace” in Sri Lanka somehow works for the Tamils and it is perfectly OK to send them back there. What does he think? These people simply up and left Sri Lanka for a holiday, on a whim? Just another glimpse into the rather warped mind of a failed wannabe priest.

Sarah Whyte wrote, in the SMH that “Scott Morrison revs up border officials while continuing his silence on Tamil asylum seekers.” Amongst other things, our Minister for Secrecy said, “”We know the work we ask you to do is difficult, the decisions we ask you to take in the context of the policies can be hard but the border protection command has never flinched.‘ I would just say that I am concerned for the personnel of Operation Sovereign Borders. I do hope they are remembering that “Following Orders” is not a defence if a charge of breaching the law is ever brought against them.

 SBS has reported that, “Reported forced return of Tamil asylum seekers shocks Tamil Congress

There is that word again; “Reported”.  And an emphasis on the vessel which arrived with 153 people on board. It is almost as though that “other” boat with just 50 people on board never existed.

Ian McPhedran of Perth Now News has reported, “Long cruise for 150 Tamil asylum seekers now being shipped back“. In this report it is revealed that Ocean Protector will take the larger group of refugees back to Sri Lanka, “According to well-placed sources”.

The Nation, from Sri Lanka reported on Tuesday that,  “The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.” This is unsurprising as the cargo of the kidnapped could not have been returned that quickly. It will be interesting to ask that same question on Monday!

The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.

The Navy’s response comes following unconfirmed reports indicating that Australian authorities had handed over 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers who had arrived at Christmas Island from Tamil Nadu recently.

- See more at: http://www.nation.lk/edition/breaking-news/item/30822-australia-did-not-hand-over-sl-asylum-seekers-navy.html#sthash.RuCnT0zN.dpuf

The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.

The Navy’s response comes following unconfirmed reports indicating that Australian authorities had handed over 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers who had arrived at Christmas Island from Tamil Nadu recently.

The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.

The Navy’s response comes following unconfirmed reports indicating that Australian authorities had handed over 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers who had arrived at Christmas Island from Tamil Nadu recently.

- See more at: http://www.nation.lk/edition/breaking-news/item/30822-australia-did-not-hand-over-sl-asylum-seekers-navy.html#sthash.RuCnT0zN.dpuf

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DANGER FOR THOSE LEFT BEHIND

In the Age, Sarah Whyte has another article, “Immigration department officials screen asylum seekers at sea ‘via teleconference‘”. This is one article which horrifies me. Sarah reveals that “It is understood interpreters were brought into the Sydney and Melbourne offices of the department on Saturday and Sunday to help ”screen” the asylum seekers. Four questions were allegedly asked of the 50 passengers, including their name, country of origin, where they had come from and why they had left.

Leaving aside the obvious breaches of human rights in avoiding the use of lawyers to assist the refugees there is a major cause for concern. Once the refugee’s name and place of origin is gained by the Department, what happens? Is the country of origin contacted to confirm the details? In other words is the country of origin encouraged to look into the circumstances of the refugee’s family? Is any care taken to protect those families?

These refugees are the ones from the vessel of 50 occupants which appears to be also from India or Sri Lanka. They are on board the ACV Triton which is unlikely to be charged with returning the prisoners. It does not have the range to get there and return. Unless it meets with the Australian gifted patrol boats Hervey Bay and Corio Bay which are now a part of the Sri Lankan Navy and are now known as SLNS Omaya and SLNS Oshadi respectively. Not that we know where they are as Sri Lanka has the same cloaking device the Australian Navy uses

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PRISON HULKS?

To conclude, this week has seen the return of the Prison Hulks, an 18th century method of holding excess prisoners off the coast of England. Now Australia seems to be using that system.

Paul Farrell and Oliver Laughland of the Guardian have written that “On-water asylum screening plan ‘shelved amid fears it could be unlawful’. Immigration department considered using Australian customs vessels as ‘motherships’ to process claims as early as 2012, former official reveals.

Now it seems that the abbott Government is disregarding legal advice and is implementing that plan.

I refer back to my comment near the beginning of this post. “Following Orders” is not a defence when those orders are unlawful. I do hope our OSB people are aware of that.

Here is a little bedtime reading to go with tony abbott’s claim the Sri Lanka is peaceful. Dr Paul White, a lecturer in the fields of political science and Middle Eastern studies, has written “Since March 2014 Sri Lankan authorities have intensified security operations in Tamil areas. There have been scores of arrests and several deaths in these regions and freedom of movement has been restricted in these areas. According to an estimate by The Sentinel Project, ‘the overall risk of genocide in Sri Lanka is medium to high’, as ‘conditions point to a likely renewal of conflict in Sri Lanka that could escalate to mass atrocities including genocide’.

Now the UNHCR has become involved. And it appears to contradict everything abbott and Morrison are saying and it puts into doubt the legality of what is being done by OSB personnel.

Reports of interceptions at sea: UNHCR Statementunhcr

UNHCR has followed with profound concern recent reports in the media and from the community in relation to the interception at sea of individuals who may be seeking Australia’s protection.

UNHCR does not have official confirmation of these reports.

When boats presumed to be carrying asylum-seekers are intercepted, UNHCR’s position is that requests for international protection should be considered within the territory of the intercepting state, consistent with fundamental refugee protection principles.

UNHCR considers that individuals who seek asylum must be properly and individually screened for protection needs, in a process which they understand and in which they are able to explain their needs.”

 

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arrival list

 

Money is Diseased Barter


I used the title to this post in a tweet and was asked to explain myself. So here goes.

From the start I will say that I am not an economist and I am not a political scientist. I am, however am amateur social historian. So don’t expect to many sources. Just opinions gained from a study of mankind.

In the beginning, as all second-rate tales start, there were hunters and gatherers. The only way they could survive was to act as a group. Everything was shared. the only sin was doing something which would harm the group. Traditionally men hunted, often unsuccessfully for meat while women gathered, luckily with much more success, fruits, roots, garin and any little critters which could give a mouthful of protein to a hungry tribe.

Then women discovered that settling down and cultivating plant foods gave a much better return. So the first villages were developed. The first known was around 12,000 years ago at M’lefaat in Iraq

The range of skills needed to live in a village grew as did the available food.. There had to be house builders, and potters. Yet all produce was still shared. As the nomadic hunter gatherers of the region began to see how well these strange “villagers” lived, they decided to drop in and take a share. They became the first conquerors and took over the running of the settlement. And took a share of the produce in return for their role as “Protectors”. The first criminals and the first taxation. and the first cells of the money cancer grew on the barter system

Over the millenia, villages grew into cities and the idea of communal

Many ancient Egyptian writings were accounts of "gifts" to the Pharaoh

Many ancient Egyptian writings were accounts of “gifts” to the Pharaoh

sharing disappeared into a golden age of myth. Instead there were kings who took a share of the produce to redistribute it to the non-producing protectors. Somewhere along the line shamans became important and used their persuasive powers to convince the common people that they had to support their King who was a representative of the God who provided the water and the good crops the city depended on.

What has happened now is that a producer; grain, fruit, animal or manufacture, had to present a proportion of their production to the Rulers, both temporal and spiritual. It meant that differeing values were put on different items. One gazelle might be worth ten baskets of wheat. A basket may be two baskets of wheat. A basket of chick peas may be two baskets of wheat.

money3The beginning of the end, the end we are seeing now, was when traders began to move goods between cities. They would take a small part of the proceeds as payment. A form of currency had to be invented to allow the new system to work. Kings loved the idea. they no longer needed large buildings to house their tax gatherings. Traders loved it because they could skim off a little more than they needed to live and so build themselves a bigger house or keep a second wife.

Some smart nomads discovered they could make a very good living by ambushing trading parties and taking their currency. Bandits were an important step in the growth of the money cancer. The created a need for secure movement of money from one city to another. Since there were money movements each way and they more or less balanced out, a smart group of people started to keep accounts instead of moving physical money. They became the first bankers. By  now barter was forgotten and everything had a money value. The bankers were able to skim small percentages off each transaction and so created quite large holdings of ready money. So much they were able to lend to Kings who wanted to make expensive war.money2

Bankers became the defacto rulers and in the past couple of centuries have set about gathering more and more of the available money. They now own the  Governments and Churches. The cancer keeps on growing. Those bankers are almost a hereditary group of hidden families who are the true rulers of the Earth. Their reason for existence has become the gathering in of more and more of the wealth created by the “little people”. They now fund both sides of wars, take a high proportion of money meant for disaster relief and tell Governments how much they can spend.

The removal of the “Gold Standard” in the 1930’s took away the last connection money had with reality and the end became inescapable. Even the Bankers have forgotten that money is but a repressentaion of the value of a real thing.

With computerisation, it has become ever easier for the bankers to accumulate more. And there is no longer anything real about money. It is just electrons in a mainframe.  This leaves ever less for the vast mass of humanity. Some of those “little people” have been deluded into thinking that running a gold mine or an iron ore mine means that they are important and rich. They do money1not see that their few billions are small change to the bankers trillions.

The money cancer has almost completely taken over human society and the sickness can only result in the death of that society. Only a world-wide revolution and a massive thinning of humanities numbers will allow a healthy society to return.

It will be brutal and many will be lost but it is now inevitable.

Money is diseased barter and must be cut out if we, as a species, are to return to a healthy way of interacting. When we again become hunters and gatherers.

 

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