Lib | ALP
46.18 | 53.82
Differential = 1,146,000 Votes
Polls older than 14 days have been discarded
This week 13,507 people were polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 22nd July.
Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.
The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
One poll, Essential 08/07/2014 was deleted.
Three polls, Neilsen 20/07/2014 and Essential 22/07/2014, ReachTel 22/07/2014 were added.
As at the time of this post, the Reachtel sample number had not been released. 3300 has been used as it is close to the previous two Reachtel samples.
This will be corrected sometime tomorrow, I hope.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,927,000 Votes
ALP 8,073,000 Votes
A major drop in ALP support.
Which leads to – - -
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
The swing away from the Abbott Government has stopped.
The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP has now begun.
It can only be hoped it stops there!
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The MH17 effect is happening as fast as the Howard/Twin Towers swing. If it continues then abbott will be in a position to call a DD relatively soon. Even if the numbers do not reach 50/50 abbott has the chutzpah to call an election based on his personal popularity. Whether he can control himself sufficiently on the domestic front is his problem. Although a major Murdoch campaign to promote abbott as competent and important will continue from now!
Again, what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.
If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 68 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 82 seats, a majority of 14.
Over to you, the discerning reader.
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