“Salutum, Greetings.” Nellus the Barristerus greeted her customers. “Here is your nice hot post prandium caffeinus.”
“Salve, good morning.” Zoophilus and Literatus said together. “Gratias, thanks.”
Secundus arrived and looked closely at Nellus. “You are looking worried this morning.” he said.
“Yes,” she replied. “It is my morning walk in the forest. In winter it is such a problem. So sad.. The trees have lost their leaves and their dryads are all so worried and tense. It destroys the joy of my boletus, mushroom, collecting trips.”
“So you are a member of the Greek cults.” said Zoophilus. “We Romans believe the Dryads all died out when we conquered Greece.”
“I respect what you say Domine, but you are Roman by birth and ancestry, but my mother was Greek and taught me to respect the old tales. I may have to take mushrooms off the menu for a while.”
“Don’t you worry too much.” interrupted Verbo Ipsum. “Spring will be here soon and the Dryads will be able to relax again. The trees will be relieved.”
“Whatever happened to your young brother, Octavius?” Zoophilus the explorer asked Secundus.
The group of Romans at the Forum Cafeterium looked up from the important morning task of drinking from their steaming beakers of caffeinus.
“I was wondering that myself, last night.” said Libertinus. “He was the life of many convivios, parties, but he has disappeared of the scene.”
Secundus looked sadly at his friends. “He sold off his inheritance and bought a small farm. He now spends his time herding sheep and goats.”
“Why did he do that?” asked the ever-curious librarian,Literatus.
“Why on earth not?” asked Nellus Ursus, the barristerus. “He had such a lovely voice. Why, he could make any girl – – – -.” Her voice trailed off as she blushed.
“We have no idea.” said Secundus. “I don’t think he speaks with anybody at all! He is now a hermit out on his farm. He certainly never speaks to us these days even when we go out to see him.”
“Of course he doesn’t speak any more.” said Verbo Ipsum.
He looked at the enquiring faces, now all turned to him, “He is now pastoral.”
Lib | ALP
46.18 | 53.82
Differential = 1,146,000 Votes
Polls older than 14 days have been discarded
This week 13,507 people were polled
Data as at Tuesday night, 22nd July.
Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.
The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.
Polls Included and Totals Polled.
One poll, Essential 08/07/2014 was deleted.
Three polls, Neilsen 20/07/2014 and Essential 22/07/2014, ReachTel 22/07/2014 were added.
As at the time of this post, the Reachtel sample number had not been released. 3300 has been used as it is close to the previous two Reachtel samples.
This will be corrected sometime tomorrow, I hope.
Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers
Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.
Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.
Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.
Two Party Preferred
Translating this into electoral numbers,
assuming 15 million electors
we have a National Two Party Preferred of
L-NP 6,927,000 Votes
ALP 8,073,000 Votes
A major drop in ALP support.
Which leads to – – -
THE DIFFERENCE CHART
The swing away from the Abbott Government has stopped.
The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP has now begun.
It can only be hoped it stops there!
POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
The MH17 effect is happening as fast as the Howard/Twin Towers swing. If it continues then abbott will be in a position to call a DD relatively soon. Even if the numbers do not reach 50/50 abbott has the chutzpah to call an election based on his personal popularity. Whether he can control himself sufficiently on the domestic front is his problem. Although a major Murdoch campaign to promote abbott as competent and important will continue from now!
Again, what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.
If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 68 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 82 seats, a majority of 14.
Over to you, the discerning reader.
“Salve, Good Morning.” Literatus greeted his friends at Forum Cafeterium. He took his beaker of steaming caffeinus from the barristerus, Nellus and walked over to the tabula.
“Salve, Literatus,” said the explorer, Zoophilus. “How is life in the Library? Received any good scrolls lately?”
“Yes, I have. They are a bit disturbing, though.”
Secundus asked, “What is wrong? Is it an Empire problem?”
“I think it is. I’ve been receiving news from some of our African outposts. In the Southern jungles there are tribes of cannibals. We can deal with most of them but there is one tribe which seems untouchable.” Literatus looked puzzled as he continued. “This tribe does not eat the peditatus, the foot soldiers. Just the Centurion. Or the Legate if he was a part of the Legion which was captured.”
“And they let all the others go?” asked Zoophilus. “Why didn’t they go back and finish the job?”
“That was the first tactic.” replied Literatus. “However, it seems that pretty soon, no one wanted to lead the cohort into battle. There were no soldiers who wanted to lead and then be eaten. The whole situation is very strange”
“It seems an effective defensive strategy.” Said Zoophilus. “Without leaders, no attacking force can succeed. By eating the leaders eventually the army will give up.”
“It is an old jungle game.” said Verbo Ipsum. “It’s called swallow the leader.”
“I’m sorry Citizens.” Nellus announced to the customers at her Forum Cafeterium. “The pistrino, the bakery, has told me there will be no small loaves of panum, bread, today.”
“Well what are we going to have with our caffeinus today?” asked Zoophilus.
“I enjoy these Turkish sweets most mornings.” said Libertinus.
“We can see that.” remarked Secundus cruelly, looking at Libertinus’ growing girth. “But the rest of us enjoy a plain lump of panum with our caffeinus. After a convivio, a banquet, the previous night we need something bland to settle our stomachs.”
“And last night’s convivio was a really good one. The entertainments were breathtaking. That Greek Comedy was excellent. There are some marvellous Greek actors in Modern Rome.” Literatus the Librarian added. “But I do enjoy a small crusty panum in the mornings.”
“I didn’t want to start a riot,” apologised Nellus. “It is just that the baker has decided there isn’t enough profit in the few little loaves they make.”
Verbo Ipsum noticed the two different lines the conversations were going.
In his obscure way, he commented “That’s quite understandable. In bakeries those buns just pay small roles.”
“Ave, Good Morning.” Libertinus greeted his friends at the Forum Cafeterium. “We obviously need to convince Caesar to give the populace more bread and circuses. I only just made it home last night. There were riots on the Via’s, the Streets.”
“I’ve been watching these events with interest,” said Literatus the Librarian. “The middle class life style is being squeezed down by the increased taxes Caesar keeps imposing.”
Secundus added, “Some of those middle class rioters are talking a lot of sense. There is a new generation of orators being discovered in these troubled times.”
“Even in the lower classes we are hearing some stirring speeches.” Zoophilus the explorer commented. “It seems all parts of society have their own orators and they are making stirring speeches. Many are listening to them, even the lower class speakers.”
Verbo Ipsum carefully put his beaker of steaming caffeinus down on the tabula and thoughtfully said, “I have heard some of these speeches and by far the worst are the ones made by the homeless! They are just vague rants.”