The Next Three Word Slogan


A Fictional Tale

About Fictional Aliens masquerading as Human Beings

 

The scene; A despondent meeting in the Prime Minister’s Office.

tony abbott, “This Senate is so hard to control. They all have minds of their own and I can’t get stuff through. It makes me look weak.”

Peta Credlin, “Well, your popularity is so far down the tubes you cannot call a double dissolution. Rupert doesn’t have everything he wants yet so you cannot give the Government benches away. He will not like it!”

“Well what can I do” asks a querulous tony. “OH Wait! There has been a plane crash involving Australians. Surely we can use that somehow.

“True.” says Peta. “I remember a time when John Howard was way down in the polls and he found an international incident to cling onto and it helped raise him up in the polls.”

“That’s right!” cries abbott. “9/11. It worked for him. He found a scapegoat and things went really well for him.”

“Don’t forget the Russians are right next door and Putin is coming here for the G20 meeting.” Peta contributes.

“That’s right,” crows tony. I can start blaming the Russians now and Rupert’s  media will raise a huge hatred of them here in Australia. It doesn’t matter what he does overseas. Then I can ban Putin and any other Russians from coming here. That will win us the support of a majority of Australians.”

“Hmmmm,” Peta thoughtfully says. “There is not a lot of evidence that this has anything to do with the Russians. It seems the separatists got hold of this missile system when they overran one of the Ukrainian bases. It wasn’t supplied by the Russians. Some Eastern separatist fool decided to fire at will and ask questions later.”

“We don’t need to worry about complicated stuff like that even if it is true. We cannot make that into a three word slogan, no matter how hard we try. “Russians did it” is much more suited to convincing those dodos who vote for us. And it fits into Rupert’s headlines so well.”

“OK.” says Peta. So now we whip up anti-Russian feeling for about three weeks. Then we ban Putin from entering Australia. Then we can do the Double Dissolution thing and get proper control of an open and adult Parliament.”

“Yes!” concludes tony. “It worked for John Howard, it’ll work for me.”

At least, I hope it is a fiction.

 

How Dumb is Australia?


We all know why we dislike tony abbott.

He is a liar, he is loud, he dumbs everything and everyone down, abbotthe speaks in slogans, he is an embarrassmment to our country. He is botoxed, hair-dyed and, did I say a liar? Oh yes, I already did.

Yet he managed to get himself elected to the highest office in the land.

shortenNow I keep hearing people on the Left complaining bitterly that Bill Shorten is not doing anything. That he is not charismatic. That he is unelectable.

Yet he is not a liar. He does not speak at the level of the average five year old. He speaks with explanations and proofs and thoughtfulness. He is well presented and presents himself well. He does have lines on his forehead, the result of thinking.

He does not shout, he does not over-use slogans and he is considered in his statements.

The true evil of abbott and his minders, handlers and puppet-masters is that they have reduced Australia to the level of five-year-olds. We now demand even shorter slogans, dumber ideas and tabloid stupidity from our leaders and if they don’t give it then we will not elect them.

Bill Shorten is a man many countries would be proud to have as their Leader.

But not Australia, it seems.

He is not enough like the man we want him to replace.

Poll Sum; 16th July


new

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

45.28 | 54.72

6,792,000|8,208,000

Differential = 1,416,000

redblue

Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 8736 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 15th July.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

redblue

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Four polls; Reachtel 26/06/14, Newspoll 29/06/14, Mogan 30/06/14, Essential 01/07/14, were deleted.

Three polls, Newspoll 13/07/14, Morgan 14/07/14, Essential 15/07/14 were added.

Poll16a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

Poll16b

Note:- Newspoll lumps PUP voters with “Others”. I split them out at as near to 50-50 as I can with whole numbers. That seems to be how the numbers for other polls fall.

Two Party Preferred

poll16c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,792,000 Votes

ALP 8,208,000 Votes

Yet another significant increase for the ALP

Which leads to – - -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Pollchart16

The swing away from the Abbott Government continues to gather momentum.

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP has not yet begun.

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

Again, what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

Pollseats16

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 64 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 86 seats, a majority of 22. Bruce Billson, Warren Entsch and Peter Dutton are now in danger. Interestingly, there are NINE Qld seats in play.

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Several weeks ago I was phoned by a pollster working on behalf of an Education Group. I was asked about University fees, Gonski and other educational matters. In full disclosure,I live in Perth, Alannah McTeirnan’s seat.

I found the results of that poll the other day and it has little comfort for the Education Minister and many others.

NTEU-pollMondayMatilda

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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No Fracking Way!


Please stop polluting my water

Please stop polluting my food

Please stop poisoning me.

Or else I shall have to stop saying “Please”!

fracking

Drunk in Charge of a Country


After an evening with the Japanese Prime Minister, the Australian Prime Minister looked like this on Australian Morning Television.

Channel Nine’s Today co-host Karl Stefanovic calls out Prime Minister Tony Abbott for being “worse for wear” at the start of an interview Wednesday morning.

All for the sake of saké

abbottbender

The abbott Effect


Last night I caught up on my polling summary. It showed a very strong Federal position for the ALP.

There was also a stack of quarterly Federal polls divided into State responses from Newspoll.

Then this morning I woke to a Newspoll of the NSW State voting intention.

Mike Baird

Mike Baird

The numbers shown are; L/NP 43 (-3) ALP 31 (0) GRN 13 (+3). Newspoll does not show a separate number for the PUP as News Ltd has decided to remove as much air as possible from the uncontrollable PUP.

The TPP for the NSW State Election is L/NP 57 (-1) ALP 43 (+1), a differential of 14%.

This seemed a strange result as last night in my “Poll Sum” I had posted a chart of Federal voting intention in NSW showing a 50-50 TPP. Interestingly, the Greens vote was almost the same in both polls.

abbottThe NSW electorate clearly differentiates between the State and Federal organuisations of the L-NP.

Despite the ICAC scandals and the forced change of Leader, the State Party is strong with the electorate.

The Federal Government is barely holding its head above water in the home state of the Prime Minister.

Does tony abbott have that much effect on his own State’s voting intentions?

Has he, single-handedly, swung the NSW Electorate 7% against the L-NP?

Is that the true ABBOTT EFFECT?

Poll Sum; July 9th


new

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

Lib | ALP

45.63 | 54.37

6,844,500 | 8,155,500

Differential = 1,311,000

redblue

Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 10140 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 17th June.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

redblue

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Two polls; Neilsen 23/06/2013, Essential 24/06/2014,

One Poll, Essential 8/07/2014 was added.

(I have not found a new Morgan or Galaxy poll this week.)

The Newspoll quarterly summary has not been included in these tables. Charts from that poll summary are included at the end of this post.

Poll09a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

 Poll09b

Two Party Preferred

Poll09c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,844,500 Votes

ALP 8,155,500 Votes

A significant increase for the ALP

Which leads to – - -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Pollchart09

The swing away from the Abbott Government continues to gather momentum.

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP is on hold.

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

Just what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

pollseatsheader

 

Pollseats09

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 66 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 84 seats, a majority of 18. Bruce Billson and Warren Entsch is now in danger!

 

redblue

For the Chart Addicts.

A series of charts showing Federal polling of some 6905 respondents gathered by Newspoll into their April-June Summary for this year.

Federal Numbers

Federal Numbers

Following is a series of charts showing the Newspoll numbers separated by State. (Tasmania did not have sufficient respondents to be given their own figures.)

The numbers are by State but the questions were about Federal intentions.

NSW Numbers

NSW Numbers

QLD Numbers

QLD Numbers

Victoria Numbers

Victoria Numbers

WA Numbers

WA Numbers

SA Numbers

SA Numbers

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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Refugees at Sea; 8th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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8th July

 

THREE REFUGEE BOATS?

A tweeted discussion has led me to conclude that there have not been two refugee vessels intercepted recently but THREE!

*************

Amanda Hodge of the Australian, on July 1st, reported “NZ distress calls suggest three boats diverted. REVELATIONS that New Zealand search and rescue authorities received two emergency calls from a foundering asylum vessel off Australia’s northwest coast last month have raised questions over whether Australian authorities secretly intercepted not two but three boatloads of Sri Lankan refugees in recent weeks. New Zealand Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse confirmed to The Australian that an asylum boat made two satellite calls to the Rescue Co-ordination Centre New Zealand seeking assistance and that the information was referred to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority. The calls are understood to have been intercepted on June 19 and June 20.

Eight days later, reporters and human rights organisations made contact with Sri Lankan asylum-seekers on a second boat which left the south Indian coast last month and was foundering 250km off the coast of Christmas Island with some 153 people on board. Sri Lanka’s official navy spokesman confirmed to The Australian last week that a third boat, spotted near Cocos Island last weekend and believed to be carrying as many as 50 Sri Lankans, had already been intercepted by an Australian customs vessel and that the asylum seekers on board would be handed over to navy authorities.

*******************

Oliver Laughland, Paul Farrell and Melissa Davey asked in theguardian.com, Monday 7 July 2014 11.55 AEST, ” What has happened to the other boatthe one reportedly carrying 153 Tamil asylum seekers?  Morrison’s Monday morning press release was silent on the fate of a reported second boat carrying 153 Tamil asylum seekers who departed from Pondicherry in southern India on 13 June. The boat’s existence has not even been confirmed by the Australian government, despite those on board contacting refugee advocates and journalists a week ago.

**************************

Sue Metcalfe has pointed me at a “PerthNow” report from 2nd July, which says “Meanwhile 50 asylum seekers whose Indonesian fishing boat was intercepted north of Christmas Island on Monday have been towed back to Indonesian waters in Australian taxpayer funded life boats behind the 2200-tonne Customs Vessel and ocean going trimaran RV Triton. Hundreds of people have been removed from Australian waters in expensive lifeboats since Operation Sovereign Borders began nine months ago.

*******************

Ray Hadley, in his regular interview with Scott Morrison yesterday asked about the possibility of a third vessel. In his curious non-informative syntax, Morrison said, “There is some suggestion about a third vessel today that I find those reports very curious um and ah people may be doubling up there a bit…

*****************

We know there was one vessel from Sri Lanka or India carrying 41 people (and a dog) and they have been returned to Sri Lanka. We almost certainly know there in a second vessel from India with 153 people on board who almost certainly are now on board “Ocean Protector” and are due to be returned to Sri Lanka the moment the High Court is disabled.

That leaves reports of 50 refugees from Indonesia or from India. ACV Triton is connected with this group and may well be holding them in a Prison Ship situation. With no indication from Sri Lanka that a third vessel is involved with them, it means Indonesia is a likely source AND destination for this elusive “Third Vessel”.

Since there have been no reports of orange lifeboats landing on Indonesian soil I am assuming that some notice is being taken of the Presidential Election due to happen tomorrow. Once that is out of the way then perhaps we shall hear a little more. From both Indonesian AND Australian sources.

***************

In the meantime our PM and Immigration Minister will

Lindsay Foyle in  today's New Matilda

Lindsay Foyle in
today’s New Matilda

continue to pretend that they went to the election saying “We will stop the boats from arriving” and this will save lives. In reality, they promised to “Stop the boats” and save lives.

So we now have a situation where we have no idea how many other, failed voyages have taken place and how many refugees have secretly drowned.

Morrison will simply say, “They didn’t arrive in Australia”.

As Ben Eltham, in today’s New Matilda says,This is a day of mourning for our once kind nation.
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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 7th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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7th July


YOU

 

BASTARD

 

HYPOCRITE

 

DOGTURD,

 

MORRISCUM.

 

41 asylum seekers

handed over to Sri Lanka

 

You have trashed

my Nation’s reputation!

 

BY HANDING INNOCENT PEOPLE BACK TO

THE CRIMINAL GANG RUNNING SRI LANKA.

 

When I am feeling rational again, I will update

this record of Australia’s shame.

MrMorrison

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 JUST TO REMIND EVERYONE

 

Relevant Articles of the

1951 United Nation’s Convention on Refugees

*published in today’s Guardian

Article 31:

Refugees unlawfully in the country of refuge

1. The contracting states shall not impose penalties, on account of their illegal entry or presence, on refugees who, coming directly from a territory where their life or freedom was threatened in the sense of article on, enter or are present in their territory without authorisation, provided they present themselves without delay to the authorities and show good cause for their illegal entry or presence.

2. The contracting states shall not apply to the movements of such refugees restrictions other than those which are necessary and such restrictions shall only be applied until their status in the country is regularised or they obtain admission into another country. The contracting states shall allow such refugees a reasonable period and all the necessary facilities to obtain admission into another country.

Article 32:

Expulsion

1. The contracting states shall not expel a refugee lawfully in their territory save on grounds of national security or public order.

2. The expulsion of such a refugee shall be only in pursuance of a decision reached in accordance with due process of law. Except where compelling reasons of national security otherwise require, the refugee shall be allowed to submit evidence to clear himself, and to appeal to and be represented for the purpose before competent authority or a person or persons specially designated by the competent authority.

3. The contracting states shall allow such a refugee a reasonable period within which to seek legal admission into another country. The contracting states reserve the right to apply during that period such internal measures as they may deem necessary.

Article 33:

Prohibition of expulsion or return (‘refoulement’)

1. No contracting state shall expel or return (“refouler”) a refugee in any manner whatsoever to the frontiers of territories where his life or freedom would be threatened on account of his race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.

2. The benefit of the present provision may not, however, be claimed by a refugee whom there are reasonable grounds for regarding as a danger to the security of the country in which he is, or who, having been convicted by a final judgment of a particularly serious crime, constitutes a danger to the community of that country.

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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 6th July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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6th July

 MORRISON VISITS SRI LANKA

Our Immigration Minister is visiting Sri Lanka while the fate of over 200 Tamil refugees is still unknown.

We do know that he is going to the island which once was the Paradise of the Indian Ocean to formally hand over the patrol boats “Hervey Bay” and “Corio Bay” to the Sri Lankan Navy. It is legitimate to wonder why this formal ceremony is not being attended by our own Defence Minister.

Golding has his very reasonable say.

Golding has his very reasonable say.

One thing which has slipped under the radar is Morrison’s choice of words about the fate of the 200+ Tamil refugees. Again he has used the phrase, “ongoing” and his Sri Lankan counterpart continues to deny that a transfer has happened.

Media reports have quoted Commodore Kosala Warnakulasuriya saying a transfer of asylum seekers is .going ahead, but that it had not yet been decided if the transfer would happen at sea.  Commodore Kosala says he has no information about a plans for his Navy to receive passengers from either boat. “No, no, no. I have not told anything like that,” he said. “Even in the morning I got the information that someone has quoted me about some Sri Lankan Navy boat movement but I have not made that sort of a comment.”

My feeling is that the transfer will happen after Morrison returns to Australia.

In the meantime we will have the proud national distinction of being a Prison Ship Nation.

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WORLD NEWS

We in Australia often think that we are far from the centre of world events and have virtually no effect on the rest of the world. It is time we woke up to the fact that not only do we have an effect on the world but the world is also taking notice.

Right in the middle of the world is New York and the non-Murdoch New York Times has headlined “Australia’s Refugee Problem

The “Times” Editorial Board wrote, “Australia is pursuing draconian measures to deter people without visas from entering the country by boat. In doing so, it is failing in its obligation under international accords to protect refugees fleeing persecution.”

An impressive slap over the knuckles in the shadow of the UN Building.

In a reference to the on board  “four-question” judgement of refugee status, The Globe and Mail from Canada has written “Reports of Australia sending Tamil asylum seekers to Sri Lanka draws fire from UN

The United Nations has expressed “profound concern” about Australia’s handling of asylum seekers amid reports that scores of Sri Lankans will be handed over to their country’s navy after only a brief assessment by Australian authorities.

There are many other headlines I have seen online from right around the world. Australia is being universally condemned for its actions and is closer to being declared a pariah state than ever before! Any chance of avoiding the South African Apartheid penalty is diminished by the ALP’s endorsement of the Abbott/Morrison solution!

 

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INDONESIAN ELECTION

Next Wednesday there is the long awaited Presidential Election in our Northern neighbour. SBY will be bowing out as our friend in Java. So who will replace him?

It is a two horse race between the Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo and  ex- Suharto military commander, Prabowo Subianto.

Joko presents as a humble and unassuming man. He has been the Governor of Jakarta for a number of years and has a reputation for wanting a more equitable and prosperous nation. He has a good record on human rights.

Subianto, on the other hand has a much less savoury history.  His campaign rhetoric has been laden with xenophobic sentiment. He has  fled overseas twice, where he received his education and, at one stage, protection from Jordan. He married one of Suharto’s daughters and so has strong links to the Nationalist movement. He was dishonorably discharged from the Army because of anti-student actions during the last few months of the Suharto regime. A classic dictator-taught strongman. His election will cast doubt on the holding of any future Presidential elections.

Mr Joko had enjoyed a strong lead in the opinion polls but that has almost evaporated, with Mr Prabowo’s past-deficient image and professional campaigning seeing him enjoy a surge in support. A very Abbott-like figure.

From an Australian point of view, Subianto could be a disaster as he will be opposed to any return of refugees. Despite, or maybe because, he has Coalition-like support from big business he appeals to an exclusive Indonesian attitude. This does not bode well for co-operation with Australia.  His election could well result in a worse relationship between our countries if Abbott insists on sending refugees back.

It is also quite likely that refugees in or passing through Indonesia will be treated much worse that they are currently. Not a good outcome!

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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 3rd July


A record of the attempts

panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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3rd July

YESTERDAY and TODAY

TAMILS RETURNED TO SRI LANKA?

While I have been unable to confirm the rumours they have been so pervasive it is hard to reject them.

Especially when our Prime Sinister considers that the “Peace” in Sri Lanka somehow works for the Tamils and it is perfectly OK to send them back there. What does he think? These people simply up and left Sri Lanka for a holiday, on a whim? Just another glimpse into the rather warped mind of a failed wannabe priest.

Sarah Whyte wrote, in the SMH that “Scott Morrison revs up border officials while continuing his silence on Tamil asylum seekers.” Amongst other things, our Minister for Secrecy said, “”We know the work we ask you to do is difficult, the decisions we ask you to take in the context of the policies can be hard but the border protection command has never flinched.‘ I would just say that I am concerned for the personnel of Operation Sovereign Borders. I do hope they are remembering that “Following Orders” is not a defence if a charge of breaching the law is ever brought against them.

 SBS has reported that, “Reported forced return of Tamil asylum seekers shocks Tamil Congress

There is that word again; “Reported”.  And an emphasis on the vessel which arrived with 153 people on board. It is almost as though that “other” boat with just 50 people on board never existed.

Ian McPhedran of Perth Now News has reported, “Long cruise for 150 Tamil asylum seekers now being shipped back“. In this report it is revealed that Ocean Protector will take the larger group of refugees back to Sri Lanka, “According to well-placed sources”.

The Nation, from Sri Lanka reported on Tuesday that,  “The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.” This is unsurprising as the cargo of the kidnapped could not have been returned that quickly. It will be interesting to ask that same question on Monday!

The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.

The Navy’s response comes following unconfirmed reports indicating that Australian authorities had handed over 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers who had arrived at Christmas Island from Tamil Nadu recently.

- See more at: http://www.nation.lk/edition/breaking-news/item/30822-australia-did-not-hand-over-sl-asylum-seekers-navy.html#sthash.RuCnT0zN.dpuf

The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.

The Navy’s response comes following unconfirmed reports indicating that Australian authorities had handed over 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers who had arrived at Christmas Island from Tamil Nadu recently.

The Sri Lanka Navy today confirmed that no Sri Lankan asylum seekers from Tamil Nadu were handed over to them by Australian authorities.

The Navy’s response comes following unconfirmed reports indicating that Australian authorities had handed over 153 Sri Lankan asylum seekers who had arrived at Christmas Island from Tamil Nadu recently.

- See more at: http://www.nation.lk/edition/breaking-news/item/30822-australia-did-not-hand-over-sl-asylum-seekers-navy.html#sthash.RuCnT0zN.dpuf

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DANGER FOR THOSE LEFT BEHIND

In the Age, Sarah Whyte has another article, “Immigration department officials screen asylum seekers at sea ‘via teleconference‘”. This is one article which horrifies me. Sarah reveals that “It is understood interpreters were brought into the Sydney and Melbourne offices of the department on Saturday and Sunday to help ”screen” the asylum seekers. Four questions were allegedly asked of the 50 passengers, including their name, country of origin, where they had come from and why they had left.

Leaving aside the obvious breaches of human rights in avoiding the use of lawyers to assist the refugees there is a major cause for concern. Once the refugee’s name and place of origin is gained by the Department, what happens? Is the country of origin contacted to confirm the details? In other words is the country of origin encouraged to look into the circumstances of the refugee’s family? Is any care taken to protect those families?

These refugees are the ones from the vessel of 50 occupants which appears to be also from India or Sri Lanka. They are on board the ACV Triton which is unlikely to be charged with returning the prisoners. It does not have the range to get there and return. Unless it meets with the Australian gifted patrol boats Hervey Bay and Corio Bay which are now a part of the Sri Lankan Navy and are now known as SLNS Omaya and SLNS Oshadi respectively. Not that we know where they are as Sri Lanka has the same cloaking device the Australian Navy uses

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PRISON HULKS?

To conclude, this week has seen the return of the Prison Hulks, an 18th century method of holding excess prisoners off the coast of England. Now Australia seems to be using that system.

Paul Farrell and Oliver Laughland of the Guardian have written that “On-water asylum screening plan ‘shelved amid fears it could be unlawful’. Immigration department considered using Australian customs vessels as ‘motherships’ to process claims as early as 2012, former official reveals.

Now it seems that the abbott Government is disregarding legal advice and is implementing that plan.

I refer back to my comment near the beginning of this post. “Following Orders” is not a defence when those orders are unlawful. I do hope our OSB people are aware of that.

Here is a little bedtime reading to go with tony abbott’s claim the Sri Lanka is peaceful. Dr Paul White, a lecturer in the fields of political science and Middle Eastern studies, has written “Since March 2014 Sri Lankan authorities have intensified security operations in Tamil areas. There have been scores of arrests and several deaths in these regions and freedom of movement has been restricted in these areas. According to an estimate by The Sentinel Project, ‘the overall risk of genocide in Sri Lanka is medium to high’, as ‘conditions point to a likely renewal of conflict in Sri Lanka that could escalate to mass atrocities including genocide’.

Now the UNHCR has become involved. And it appears to contradict everything abbott and Morrison are saying and it puts into doubt the legality of what is being done by OSB personnel.

Reports of interceptions at sea: UNHCR Statementunhcr

UNHCR has followed with profound concern recent reports in the media and from the community in relation to the interception at sea of individuals who may be seeking Australia’s protection.

UNHCR does not have official confirmation of these reports.

When boats presumed to be carrying asylum-seekers are intercepted, UNHCR’s position is that requests for international protection should be considered within the territory of the intercepting state, consistent with fundamental refugee protection principles.

UNHCR considers that individuals who seek asylum must be properly and individually screened for protection needs, in a process which they understand and in which they are able to explain their needs.”

 

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arrival list

 

Poll Sum; July 2nd


new

POLL SUMMARY

HEADLINE NUMBERS

 Lib | ALP

45.95 | 54.05

6,892,500| 8,107,500

Differential = 1,215,000

redblue

Polls older than 14 days have been discarded

This week 11553 people were polled

Data as at Tuesday night, 17th June.

Based on the AEC numbers there were 14722754 enrolled electors for the 2013 election so a fair estimate for the 2016 election is 15,000,000 electors.

The symbolic red and blue bar drawing a line where numbers swing around unpredictably.

redblue

Polls Included and Totals Polled.

Three polls; Morgan15/06/2013, Newspoll17/06/2014, Essential17/06/2014,
were deleted.

Four polls, Reachtel 26/06/2014,  Newspoll 29/06/2013, Morgan 30/6/2014, Essential 1/07/2014
were added

poll01a

Percentages converted back to Raw Numbers

Simple maths convert the published % to raw numbers using the electors polled.

Liberal and National Party numbers are combined.

poll01b

Two Party Preferred

poll01c

Translating this into electoral numbers,

assuming 15 million electors

we have a National Two Party Preferred of

L-NP 6,892,500 Votes

ALP 8,107,500 Votes

A small increase for the ALP

Which leads to – - -

THE DIFFERENCE CHART

Pollchart01

Budget panic is still easing and the MSM continues to push the L-NP. The Budget hits effect will only become evident over the next month as charges rise and welfare cuts take effect.

Yet the swing away from the Abbott Government continues to hold.

The expected swing back towards the current baseline of about ALP 52.5/47.5 L-NP is on hold.

redblue

POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

 

1:- I think this is the final Nielsen Poll

2:- Just what do all the numbers mean for seats? The question asked by sitting members on a personal level and by the electorate as a whole. I have assumed that any swing is uniform Australia wide and that a 2.0% margin over the current TPP will show the seats in play at an election held within a month of today. So – the marginal seat list.

pollseatsheader

Pollseats01

 

If we assume all seats in play fall to the ALP the Coalition and the Independents will hold 67 seats. ALP and one Green will form a Government with 83 seats, a majority of 16.  Warren Entsch is now in danger!

 

Over to you, the discerning reader.

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Refugees at Sea; 1st July


A record of the attempts panicking and hopeless people make
To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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1st July

THIS MORNING

Disturbingly I am hearing reports, which I have not been able to confirm, that the people who were taken into custody by ACV Triton from the “Indian Boat” are being returned to Sri Lanka directly. That they will be off loaded near that Island onto the patrol boats Australia gave to the corrupt and criminal Government which currently rules what was once a paradise in the Indian Ocean. Triton has a range of some 3000 nm and so would be capable of that task.

It is a little harder to find news, even rumours, about the 50 refugees from Indonesia. It seems unlikely they will be “pushed” back to Indonesia within the next couple of weeks as the Indonesian presidential elections are happening. So, it looks like we are running a prison ship or two at the moment. Delightful!

It has just been pointed out to me that thses are people, taken from their vessel way outside our territorial waters, the High Seas, and being taken to another vessel from another country. Can anyone say “PIRACY”? Or “KIDNAPPING”?

The fact that they are being sent back into the suituation the origionally fled rates at the UN-defined “REFOULMENT”

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A Summary of What Happened Last Week

 On 23rd June there were reports of a vessel headed for New Zealand but North West of Ausralia. It had an unknown number on board and was in trouble. We were told nothing more.
On 27th June there were reports of a vessel claiming to have come from India but with Tamils on board. It had left India on June 13th. Again we were told nothing for the next 24 hours.

We are refugees. We come from Sri Lanka, we stayed in India and we are unable to live there. That’s why we are coming to Australia,” a passenger told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.refugeesindiatamil

A boat with 153 refugees from Sri Lanka on board is in trouble 250 km from Christmas Island, it was reported on Saturday. Passengers have spoken to reporters in Australia, saying the boat left from India two weeks ago and contains 32 women and 37 children and they are mostly Tamils from Sri Lanka. “We are refugees. We come from Sri Lanka, we stayed in India and we are unable to live there. That’s why we are coming to Australia,” a man calling himself Duke told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

The man said the vessel was leaking and struggling in high seas and strong winds, and requested assistance.The Australian government has vowed to stop boats carrying asylum seekers from reaching its territory, which includes Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean.

On June 24th, the Hinduu Times published Rukmini Das’ article entitled When the law gives no refuge

The lack of a law providing certain basic rights to refugees violates India’s obligations under customary international lawrefugeesindiatamil1

India is no stranger to serving as a safe haven to refugees, from as far back as the first millennium, when the Hindu rulers of Gujarat granted refuge to Parsi settlers from erstwhile Persia. At present, refugees in India hail from places such as Tibet, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and even conflict zones further away, such as Iran, Somalia and Sudan.

According to data collected by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), India has close to 2 lakh refugees living within its territory with the number constantly rising. However, unofficial reports place the figure at above 4.5 lakh. Currently, only judicial decisions regulating specific situations govern refugees in India. There are also ad hoc administrative advisories by the Ministry of Home Affairs regulating specific situations concerning refugees, such as the 2012 Advisory on preventing and combating human trafficking in India. Lack of standardised documentation for this category of persons and a lack of legal recognition has led to difficulties in their access to basic facilities such as decent living conditions, employment, free or subsidised medical facilities and education.

Oh, for us metric-based Westerners,  a Lahk is 100,000 in the South Asian Numbering System.

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We learned nothing officially 

Luckily, in the interests of transparency, there was a Member of the House of Representatives on Christmas Island on other official business as the events unfolded.

Lifted unashamedly from the Radio Australia website.

Federal Labor MP Alannah MacTiernan, who was on the island, said there was a lot of activity on the water early Saturday morning. “On Friday night it was very evident … around midnight [or] 1:00am, there was a lot of activity,” she said. “At that stage people started saying there must be a boat out there. “There was a lot of elite Australian Federal Police coming up to the island on Thursday and that presence was very visible.”

A source has told the ABC that staff at the island’s detention centre were instructed to prepare 300 beds in anticipation of possible arrivals.

On that Saturday night we also learned that there were about 50 people on the other vessel which had presumably come from Indonesia.

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SBS News REPORTED ON 29th June

The government is being urged to explain what xxekEis happening to sick, young children believed to be detained on border patrol boats. The federal government has refused to confirm reports that a boat carrying 153 Tamil asylum seekers, including 30 children, is in high seas off Christmas Island. Nor has it confirmed reports that a second boat, from Indonesia with 50 people aboard, has been intercepted by Australian Customs vessel Triton near the island.

But the Australian Greens say Christmas Islanders have said local boats are transporting supplies to Australian vessels Ocean Protector and Triton.

Greens immigration spokeswoman Sarah Hanson-Young is concerned about asylum seekers who may be on board Australian ships. “The reports we had [were that] on board one of the boats yesterday there were children very sick after spending two weeks out on the seas,” she said in Canberra on Sunday. Immigration Minister Scott Morrison must explain how they are treating the people who have already spent over two weeks at sea, she said. “It seems as though it is more like `operation prison ships‘ than it is Operation Sovereign Borders.

New Matilda writer Ryan Essex has an excellent discussion on the Sri Lankan disgrace in “Shining A Light On Australia’s Role In Tamil Genocide.”

BACK IN INDIA

Lifted unashamedly from the same, previously quoted Radio Australia website.

Indian authorities have no knowledge of boat

Local authorities in India say they are not aware of any asylum seeker boat leaving the country’s shores. The coastguard in the state of Pondicherry – where one of the asylum seekers claims the boat departed from – said it would be difficult for an asylum seeker boat to depart from the state’s 21 kilometre coastline without being detected. “Nobody is leaving from Pondicherry to Australia,” a spokesman said.

The coastguard of the larger neighbouring state of Tamil Nadu said two boats carrying asylum seekers to Australia were intercepted off the Indian coast in 2013. A spokesman said the last one was in August and said it was highly doubtful there have been any more departures since then.

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arrival list

 

Refugees at Sea; 29th June


A record of the attempts panicking and hopeless people make
To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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29th June

Some good news arrived last night. Member for Perth Allanah MacTiernan was on Christmas Island on Friday and Saturday. On Saturday night, she saw increased “on Water” activities and  local Islanders were telling her that there was “A Boat” and then later changing that to “Two Boats”. She was also told of the sudden arrival of AFP personnel and the staff at the concentration detention centre. MacTiernan passed this information on to the ABC and to RRAN Fremantle organiser, Jasmina Brankovich on Saturday night.

Some parts of social media were a little skeptical as the reports, correctly, were “unconfirmed” yet, shortly after,  the ABC published the information online. Ms MacTirnan has since appeared on ABCnews24 and confirmed all that was reported.

So – The Good News

Both vessels appear to have been intercepted and their occupants taken on board.

The vessel which was reported to be heading towards NZ hugewith 50 occupants appears to have been dealt with by ACV Triton. It is interesting that just at the time we would expect Triton to arrive back from this mission a vessel named “Huge Sw” has reached Christmas Island from the NW and has not entered Flying Fish Cove but has sailed around to the West of FFC at slow speed with its closest approach to the Island being at West White Beach. This is just 500mtrs from the Camp and is remote from the rest of the Island. I am guessing that “Huge Sw” is ACV Triton with its cloaking device inactivated and a false identity added.

I AM WRONG WITH THIS – A CI resident has told me that Huge Sw is a large cargo ship. So Triton has not yet returned to CI.

It is quite possible that Triton has attended both vessels although the timescale would be very tight. With its rated speed of 20kts (37kmh) it could have made the round trip to the Tamil vessel in 20 hours.

It seems that all people on board both vessels are now safe. Safe until they are brought ashore. then the torture of indefinite detention begins.

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A New Problem for Border Protection.

If, as has been claimed, the boat with the Tamils on board set off from India then all the support Australia has given the criminal regime in Sri Lanka has been wasted. Now it will be necessary to find a way to bribe the Indian Government into complying with Australia’s selfish demands.

More importantly this appears to be a voyage which was organised without the use and payment of people smugglers. A “grassroots” enterprise. So there will be no trail to follow. No individuals to blame. No “business model” to destroy.

I do hope Immigration Minister Morrison is subject to migraines!

 

 

arrival list

Refugees at Sea – 28th June


A record of the attempts panicking and hopeless people make

To reach Australia, the Land of the Fair Go.

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28th June

On the 23rd Inst (haven’t used that term for decades) Martyn Farrar of The Guardian reported that, A boat in waters off the north-west coast of Australia sent two emergency calls after getting into difficulty while travelling to New Zealand.”

That information has been updated in an article by Nick Butterly and Andrew Probyn in today’s West Australian. “One boat carrying about 150 Tamils tritonwas said to be in remote waters 300km west of Christmas Island. The other, carrying about 50 passengers, had been intercepted by the Australian Customs vessel Triton between Christmas Island and Java.

Disturbingly, the article goes on to say, “When The Weekend West spoke with Surya, the boat was about 300km west of Christmas Island. She said calls had been made to Australia on Thursday for help but that assistance was yet to come. It is believed Customs was moving to try to turn the boat back to Indonesia.

turn the boat back to Indonesia” ??????

One hopes this is a mishearing, a subeditor’s error or careless reporting. If they mean to push this vessel from India to Indonesia, the geopolitical ramifications are enormous! If they mean to push it back to India, the logistics are horrendous. From their current position that is a distance of some 3500km! A distance greater than Perth to Sydney!

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The Future for These Scared People

Listening to Scott Morrison this morning, I learnt that while Morrison did not confirm reports the boat was from India he did say the Government was “always ready to deal with any possible threat that presents at our borders“. This boatload of terrified civilian refugees is a THREAT TO OUR NATION!

To remove that threat, assuming they are “apprehended” and “taken into custody” then they will spend some time on Manus or Nauru Island and then be returned to this; a Sri Lanka with an addiction to torture.

Every Sunday I hear a coda to the ABC “Insiders” program. It says “You’re making us very proud to be here.”

YEAH! RIGHT!!!

 

 

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