I just had an interesting read through the Roy Morgan Report on the 3rd Leaders’ Forum from Wednesday night.
It was an interesting read about how Kevin Rudd won it hands down. Not that that is what we read in either the Rinehart or Murdoch Media.
It was an interesting read about how Kevin Rudd moved the Coalition Supporters across the line into Labor territory while he spoke.
It was an interesting read about all the little things and moments which moved the Morgan Sample Audience.
Then there is the stand-out moment of the whole report. And it has nothing to do with the Peoples’ Forum or Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott.
It is to do with that boring background part of polling. The sample! Yeah, I know. The doctor asks me for a sample and, at my age, I supply it, more or less on demand.
To get a polling sample is a different
bottle of piss kettle of fish. It does not suit Newspoll or Galaxy or Essential to show the full breakdown of voters’ intentions. They highlight the bits which will be of an advantage to their owners. So we see much being made of small movements within a narrow band of changing intentions.
Those of us who salivate over the litttle, within the margin of error, changes from week to week need to step back a little and look at one of the unmentioned facts uncovered week by week by the Roy Morgan pollsters.
ONE QUARTER OF THE ELECTORATE IS UNDECIDED!
“For the poll nerds:The carefully selected balanced cross-section of electors, from the Roy Morgan Research SuperPanel of over 300,000 people, was invited to React to the debate. The final sample was comprised of 23% ALP; 33% L-NP; 11% Green; 9% Other and 24% Undecided Voters. This profile is close to the current state of the voting nation. For this special Mobile Reactor survey, undecided voters are not questioned further about their party preference as they would be in a traditional Morgan Poll designed to measure voting intention.“
With eight days to go until the Election, with near-total saturation media-approval for Tony Abbott and near total media-approbium for Kevin Rudd, one in four Australian voters are still undecided.
So next time you see a poll talking about a two, four or six percent gap between the parties, remember that TWENTY FOUR PERCENT are undecided.
This last eight days is all about those who are yet to be convinced. Many of whom, I would suggest, are thinking, “I like what Labor has done but Tony Abbott keeps saying – - -”
We will not know the result of that thinking until the pencil is in the elector’s hand.
Come election night there could be some tears from an unexpected source. Along with some holes in walls!