Poll of Polls; The Result

In some ways the results of this poll were surprising, in other ways they were predictable.

The polling sample was drawn from my online circle of friends and acquaintances which is predominantly left-wing.

Since Morgan normally has better news for the Left it was always likely, in my mind that there would be a leaning towards that poll.

What I was not expecting, because my circle includes a lot of very clever and learned people, was such an overwhelming rejection of the Phone polls.

This poll  was about perceptions, not reality. In political polling credibility can only be judged at the time of an election. That is when samples and methods and self interest all come together to provide a number which can be checked. An exam, if you like.

That is when any possible personal interests of the polling company in having a result to suit an employer must be removed so that the integrity and accuracy of the polling company will look as good as possible. Election-time polls all come together with variations of no more than 1% regardless of the polling method. Any push-polling urge is dropped at that time.

The wild variations we are seeing in this mid-election cycle are not as normal as we are led to believe.

Less than 25% for ALL polls other than Morgan is a telling statistic. Even with a small (50) sample and a margin of error of around 15% this is a major rejection of the polls accepted by the Statistical Wonks.

Whether that rejection has any basis in reality will only become clear around the beginning of September.

I would like to thank all who took the time to vote in this poll.